Paraguay vs Nicaragua Prediction: Slim win for World Cup-bound hosts

Paraguay's only 2026 FIFA World Cup warm-up game arrives this Friday (7:15pm local, 11:15pm BST) at the Estadio Defensores del Chaco in Asuncion, with Nicaragua their opponents.

Below are my Paraguay vs Nicaragua predictions, alongside all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Sunderland defender Omar Alderete, Brighton midfielder Diego Gomez, Strasbourg forward Julio Enciso and Atlanta United winger Miguel Almiron are arguably the four standout names in this Paraguay squad, and all four are set to feature on Friday.

Football Odds

Oliver Bello, Jefferson Rivera Stuart and Edgar Castillo were among the second-half substitutes in Nicaragua's 0-0 stalemate with South Africa last week, and all three are in with a chance of earning starts in Asuncion.

Head-to-head record

The only previous meeting between these two sides came in June 2023, with the Paraguay securing a 2-0 friendly win.

Paraguay vs Nicaragua Odds

Paraguay are 1/7 to win, implying an 87.5% probability of success, with Nicaragua 14/1, or a 6.7% chance, and the draw priced at 6/1.

Handicap +3 - Nicaragua @ 4/6

Paraguay boast a much more talented crop of players than Nicaragua, but do they have it in their locker to inflict a beatdown?

Granted, they've generally played much stronger sides than the Central American nation, but they've not beaten anyone by more than two goals since defeating Chile 3-0 in August 2017.

Nicaragua, meanwhile, held another country set to compete at this year's World Cup, South Africa, to a goalless draw in Johannesburg last week, and haven't been beaten by more than two goals in any of their last four internationals.

I think the visitors can keep it to one or two goals at a maximum on Friday, so I'm happy to back them on the +3 handicap at 4/6.

To Win to Nil - Paraguay @ 8/13

It's a struggle for value here, so I'm going with a relatively safe pick of Paraguay To Win to Nil.

Nicaragua have failed to score in four of their last seven games, including two of their last three, while Paraguay have conceded just twice across their last three against Morocco (1-2), Greece (1-0) and Mexico (2-1), while in World Cup qualifying, they were breached just 10 times in 18 matches; only Ecuador (five) conceded fewer in the South American section.