Brazil World Cup Top Scorer Odds: Penalties hand Raphinha the edge over favourite

Five-time world champions Brazil are packing plenty of firepower in their ranks for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, but who will top score for the Selecao in North America?

Below are the Brazil World Cup Top Scorer Odds, including an assessment of the main contenders.

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Vinicius Jr. @ 5/2

Real Madrid star Vinicius Jr. has flattered to deceive on the international stage, and his goal in last week's 6-2 friendly thrashing of Panama was only his ninth in 48 senior caps, yet he has been installed as favourite to be Brazil's top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

There's logic behind this, as he is one of the first names on Carlo Ancelotti's team sheet, having been managed by the Italian tactician for four seasons at club level and finishing runner-up to Rodri for the Ballon d'Or in 2024 under his stewardship.

The 25-year-old enjoyed a strong goalscoring season with Los Blancos, netting 22 times across all competitions, just like in the previous campaign, but scored just twice in World Cup qualifying for the Selecao, and at the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar, he notched just once.

Raphinha @ 11/4

Unlike his La Liga rival, Barcelona's Raphinha shone in qualifying, scoring five times; only Real Madrid's Rodrygo, who has been ruled out of the tournament due to injury, also found the net more than twice (three goals).

Three of Raphinha's goals in qualifying came from the penalty spot, and he's been successful from 12 yards 17 times in a row (excluding shootouts), last missing for Vitoria Guimaraes in a 1-0 defeat to CD Tondela in December 2017. He scored five penalties for Barcelona in 2025/26, while Vinicius Jr. failed to convert two of the seven he took for Real Madrid last season and has missed two of the three he has taken for Brazil, including one in the last qualifying campaign.

So, Raphinha, who scored 21 goals in 33 club appearances last season and has struck 11 times in 37 caps for the Selecao, should be on spot-kick duties, probably making him a more attractive proposition in this market than Vincius Jr.

World Cup Odds

Igor Thiago @ 5/1

Talking of penalties, how about Igor Thiago, who scored nine of the 10 he took for Brentford in the 2025/26 season.

The 24-year-old, who found the net 25 times for Brentford last term, including 22 times in the Premier League, only made his national team debut earlier this year, but already has two goals from three games, and both strikes came from the penalty spot.

It will be interesting to see who takes penalties if the Bees striker and Raphinha are both on the pitch at the same time - my guess would be the latter, given his seniority and better conversion rate - but what's really counting against Igor Thiago here is his expected lack of minutes, with Matheus Cunha and/or Endrick perhaps ahead of him in the pecking order.

If he does get the nod at No. 9, though, his 5/1 price will begin to look like a bargain.

Neymar @ 13/2

As Brazil's all-time top goalscorer, you'd ordinarily expect Neymar to feature high up the list here, but there are a few factors pushing him down.

Most important of all, he's carrying a calf injury which is likely to keep him out of the Selecao's opening group game against Morocco on 13 June, and even if he recovers for their second match against Haiti six days later, he'll be battling Vinicius Jr. and Raphinha for playing time, with Ancelotti declaring that he will only be considered as a forward or attacking midfielder, where the La Liga stars played against Panama, rather than as a winger.

Neymar hasn't touched the field since Santos' 3-0 defeat to Coritiba on 17 May, meaning he's likely to go a month without playing before he next touches grasses on a competitive level.

The 34-year-old, therefore, looks like poor value in the Brazil top goalscorer market at 13/2.

Matheus Cunha @ 9/1

One goal in 22 caps makes for pretty horrific reading if you're Cunha or a staunch supporter of his. He may point to a lack of actual minutes, but it's hardly inspiring stuff if you're thinking about Brazil's top goalscorer at this World Cup.

On a more positive note, the 27-year-old ended the 2025/26 campaign in superb form for Manchester United, scoring four times in his final seven appearances, including three in his last four.

For the third season running, Cunha hit double figures for goals in the Premier League, a mightily impressive achievement when you consider he spent the first two of those in an ailing Wolves side (12 in 2023/24, 15 in 2024/25).

He started Brazil's friendly against Panama last week, which is probably encouraging for his chances of getting the nod for their first group game at the World Cup, but he put through his own net in the 14th minute and was taken off at half-time, with his replacement Thiago, as well as fellow forward Rayan, getting on the scoresheet after the interval.

Raphinha, Vincius Jr. and, when he gets fit, Neymar, are the superstars in this Selecao side, and Cunha will be expected to fall in line behind the trio, so a tilt for top Brazil goalscorer is unlikely, especially as his minutes are likely to be shared with the rest of the attackers.

Endrick @ 11/1

Touted as Brazil's next superstar a few years ago, Endrick endured a tough time of it after officially completing his move to Real Madrid at the age of 18, and in the first half of the 2025/26 campaign, he made just three appearances before being loaned to Lyon.

Enrick has rediscovered his mojo at the French side, netting eight times in 21 appearances before being named in Ancelotti's squad for the World Cup.

The 19-year-old doesn't have the best goalscoring record for Brazil at senior level, scoring three goals in 15 caps, but he's still in the early stages of his career, so expect that goals to game ratio to improve.

Once again, a lack of minutes harms his chances of earning the title of Brazil's top goalscorer in North America.

Rayan @ 16/1

Rayan took the Premier League like a duck to water after joining AFC Bournemouth from Vasco da Gama during the January transfer window, scoring five goals in 15 appearances, and his form was rewarded with a national team debut for the senior side in April against Croatia.

In his second appearance, against Panama last weekend, he scored to make it four goals in his last six games for club and country, so he's carrying plenty of confidence into this tournament.

Still, the 19-year-old is behind fellow left-footers Raphinha and Luiz Henrique in the pecking order, explaining his 16/1 price here.