US Horse Racing Tips: Paul’s two best bets from across the pond on Friday

Our Stateside guru Paul Quigley is back after almost two weeks away to cast his eye on all the action taking place across the Atlantic on Friday. He has analysed all the meetings on offer and picked out his two best bets of the day.

Check out his US Horse Racing tips below for Friday 22 May.

Today's US Racing Odds

21:09 Belmont at the Big A (Race 7) – Over and Ollie (6) @ SP

At their best, all of these can win this. There may be a clear-cut favourite in Raise the Bar (5). His best effort came when five lengths too good for a field of Texas breds in a stake at Sam Houston in February.

He made a promising return running first time for trainer Chad Brown. In a race at today’s level, he ran third here last month. In his favour is the possibility of the lead on his own.

El Grande O (3) won a similar race to this one last time. It was only a match race but he beat a decent yardstick in the process. He is a player. Interestingly, Flavien Prat rode him and Raise the Bar (5) last time.

He appears to desert them to get on Tuscan Sky (8) for the first time. He has not raced in getting on for a year but has been working really well. From a class point of view, this stakes winner is a nice fit with this field. He has only sprinted once and that resulted in a wide margin victory.           

It’s hard to know how they will bet this race. The pair that may offer the most value are T Kraft (7) and Over and Ollie (6). The first named won a stake here early last year. He was pitched in a deep end in two graded stakes subsequently before going to the sidelines.

His comeback after a long absence was encouraging. Over and Ollie (6) is a tougher read but he may be a price after not staying over nine furlongs last time. He can now race with lasix which has seem him run his best races.    

Like the selection, Little Ni (4) needs to rebound. He may be all the better for his first start back this year. He is dangerous off a couple of runs at Saratoga last summer. Unlike him, the late Money Supply (2) lacks a recent race. His trainer has hit form after a cold spell.   

General Banker (1) will likely be the outsider of the field. He did run Over and Ollie (6) to a length in December.

21:22 Churchill Downs (Race 8) – Thoughtthatcounts (1) @ SP

This conditions event sees the comeback of class act Verifire (2). He won his first three starts culminating in a stakes victory here last June. That was a red hot contest with the runner up winning a Grade 2 next time and the third narrowly missing in a Grade 1.

He went to the sidelines after something went wrong when fancied for a Grade 1 at Saratoga last August. His trainer Brad Cox has him going well in the mornings. This is a very winnable spot for him to make his comeback, although not a gimme. In truth, it’s hard not to argue too much with anyone who wants to take him at a short price.       

Floodlites (3) is likely to be clear second favourite. Wes Ward’s four year old has graduated from claimers. He has won allowance conditions events either side of a winter break. His comeback victory at Keeneland was impressive.

He has speed but doesn’t need the lead to run his race. That is also the case with Tough Catch (4). He has ran in two super fast Grade 3’s at Oaklawn since winning there in February. In the first he ran second. Last time, he ran into some very talented sprinters. 

David Jacobson is a very streaky trainer. He is now in form after a barren spell. His Thoughtthatcounts (1) could outrun his odds here. If not to win, maybe to round out the forecast. He returned to his best when a close second at Keeneland last month. The winner scored again here next time.

Thoughtthatcounts (1) is a late runner and will need some help up front. That could happen if Furio (5) and Harrodsburg (6) add to the speed mix. The first named has a chance off an all the way victory at The Fair Grounds in March. Harrodsburg (6) has done some of his best work at Churchill. He’s not raced since November but has been working really well locally for his comeback.

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