Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets Prediction: Visitors take small step to first-ever Premier’s Plate

Australian A-League Men’s leaders Newcastle Jets, currently three points clear of second-placed Auckland FC, can claim their first-ever Premier’s Plate this weekend by bettering the Black Knights’ result.

The Jets kick off the penultimate round of fixtures with a game against Melbourne Victory at AAMI Park (10:35 BST, TNT Sports 1), where they haven’t beaten their hosts since February 2022. Read on for my Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets predictions, alongside team news and match odds.

Team News

Melbourne Victory defender Sebastian Esposito is free to return on Friday after observing concussion protocols in last Saturday's 2-2 draw at Auckland, but Joshua Inserra (leg), Juan Mata (elbow) and Jing Reec (knee) remain sidelined for Arthur Diles' side.

Football Odds

Christian Bracco, Oscar Fryer, Alexander Badolato (all ACL), Joe Shaughnessy (knee), Thomas Aquilina (hamstring) and Will Dobson (concussion) headline the unavailable list for Mark Milligan's Newcastle Jets side.

Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets Odds

Home specialists Melbourne Victory, who, alongside Adelaide United, have won the most points at their own stadium (21) this season, are 5/6 favourites to win on Friday, implying a 54.5% probability of success. Meanwhile, Newcastle Jets, who have accrued the most points on their travels (25), are 12/5, or a 29.4% chance, to win for the first time since March 22, with the draw offered at 3/1.

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - Draw & Yes @ 10/3

A draw would probably suit both sides on Friday.

Victory are highly unlikely to sneak ahead of Auckland into second, so their focus is on maintaining their top-six place, with one point from their final two fixtures probably enough to seal their spot in the Elimination Finals.

Of course, Diles’ charges will be keen to finish third or fourth to clinch a home Elimination Final, but a draw would keep them in the race until the final day, where they have a winnable final game at bottom-of-the-table Western Sydney Wanderers.

The Jets, meanwhile, require four points from their last two games to guarantee their first Premier’s Plate, although depending on Auckland’s result against Central Coast Mariners on Sunday, that could be decided on Sunday, anyway.

Today's Football Fixtures

A point at AAMI Park would keep Milligan’s men ahead of Auckland, whatever the Black Knights’ result against the Mariners, heading into the final round of fixtures next weekend, when the Jets host CCM, who they will expect to beat on home soil, while Auckland face a tricky trip to Sydney FC’s Allianz Stadium.

Newcastle blitzed Victory 5-2 in October’s reverse fixture, but their last win in this fixture at AAMI Park was over four years ago, and last season’s corresponding game finished all square at 1-1.

A goalscoring draw looks a good bet again here, with half (four) of Victory’s last eight games going that way, while Newcastle’s first goalscoring stalemate this season came last Saturday at home to Adelaide United (1-1).

Bet Builder - Over 10.5 Corners & Woodwork to be Hit @ 11/8

Victory top the ALM's corner charts this season, with their games averaging 11, and they're averaging the most taken per game (6.21).

The Jets, meanwhile, rank second for corners per game (10.79), averaging the second-most conceded per game (5.83). Both of their matches this month have produced at least 11 corners, with 17 away at Macarthur FC in a 3-2 defeat on April 2 followed by 11 in last Saturday's 1-1 home draw with Adelaide United.

There were 17 corners taken in Victory's draw at Auckland last weekend, and 15 in their 1-0 home defeat to Wellington Phoenix six days prior.

Last season's corresponding fixture between Victory and the Jets produced 14 corners, equally shared.

The woodwork, meanwhile, has been hit at least once in Newcastle's last seven games.

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