Celta Vigo vs Freiburg Prediction: Value lies with another Freiburg win

Celta Vigo will have to do something spectacular to qualify for the final four of the Europa League, having lost the first leg of their quarter-final 3-0 to Freiburg. 

They meet again in Spain (17:45 BST, TNT Sports 1) with the Germans in full control of this tie, and below you can find my Celta Vigo vs Freiburg predictions. 

Team News

Celta boss Claudio Giraldez may look to make changes to his 3-4-3 formation for this second leg, after he also saw his side beaten 3-0 at the weekend in La Liga, by bottom club Real Oviedo.

Expect captain Borja Iglesias to lead the line again, with Iago Aspas an experienced option to feature on the right. Defender Javi Rodriguez was withdrawn at half-time in the first leg with a knock along with Williot Swedburg so Fer Lopez and Jones El-Abdellaoui may feature in the starting XI.

Freiburg may choose to name the same XI as they did in the first leg given their dominance. Jan-Niklas Beste starred on the wing with a goal, while fellow wide man Vincenzo Grifo also notched.

Both were benched for the Bundesliga win over Mainz, so it will be interesting to see how Julian Schuster sets his team up here. 

Football Odds

Celta Vigo vs Freiburg Odds

Celta Vigo are priced at 19/20 to win this game while Freiburg are 5/2 for the win. That gives the hosts an implied win probability of 51.3% while a draw is priced at 11/4. 

Over 2.5 goals is 10/11, BTTS is 4/5 and Iglesias is the favourite to score first.

Today's Football Fixtures

Freiburg to win @ 5/2

I hate backing teams to win in 90 minutes after they have won the first leg, because a draw or even a narrow defeat would be enough to carry them over the line. However, I think there is a pretty large gap in quality between these two at the current moment in time, so I’m happy to side with the Germans again. 

Freiburg fully deserved their 3-0 win in the first leg, and alarm bells were ringing for me when Celta lost 3-0 to Real Oviedo - the worst team in La Liga this term. Yes, they made changes, but that is a devastating loss especially ahead of this quarter-final. Celta are conceding a lot of goals right now, having let in 12 in their last four games, including a 4-3 defeat to Alaves and a 3-2 victory over Valencia. 

Given they have to go all-out-attack, I can see Freiburg sitting in and picking them off - taking full advantage of the gaps they leave at the back. Away win is a massive price. 

Over 3.5 goals @ 9/4

Let’s have a bit of fun with this. Celta Vigo need to score at least three goals to stay in the competition, so the handbrake is going to be off for this clash. They are going to be chasing goals from start to finish, and their defence has been leaky in recent weeks. 

Two of their last four have seen over 3.5 goals, while the other two have contained three goals, so I don’t think this is beyond the realms of possibility. Freiburg may find that attack is the best form of defence once again, with two of their last five matches seeing over 3.5 goals. 

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