Real Madrid vs Girona Prediction: Visitors’ to keep it close early

It wasn't a great week in Europe for Real Madrid but having played their first leg against Bayern Munich, they might feel a touch relieved to only be one down heading into the second leg next week. It is back to La Liga action for them on Friday night with an 8PM (UK time) kick-off against Girona. Premier Sports 2 will be showing the match live on TV.

As always, our Spanish football expert takes the helm as he previews the action and gives us his top two Real Madrid vs Girona Predictions plus all the team news, predicted line-ups and stats...

Real Madrid vs Girona Preview:

Real Madrid face a quick turnaround following their Champions League clash against Bayern Munich, with Los Blancos returning to domestic matters with a home game against Girona. 

It has been a bad week for Álvaro Arbeloa's side, with their hopes of silverware suffering serious damage on two fronts. A 2-1 defeat against Mallorca on Saturday, coupled with Barcelona's 2-1 victory over Atlético Madrid, leaves them with seven points to make up on the Catalans, with only eight games to play. 

That had the potential to be the weekend when Real Madrid closed the gap on Barça, but they put in a lacklustre performance in Palma. Eduardo Camavinga's failure to track back and close out the danger for Mallorca's first goal was emblematic of a display that lacked the drive you'd expect from a title-chasing team. 

Tuesday night brought another 2-1 loss, albeit in very different circumstances, against a Bayern Munich side that reigned supreme for an hour in the Spanish capital. The Bavarians could easily have put the tie to bed, but in the end, they found themselves hanging on to their lead as Real Madrid launched one of their trademark late Champions League rallies at the Bernabéu. 

Kylian Mbappé grabbed one goal back for the hosts, and could have scored more in a wide-open encounter that saw both sides have 20 shots across the 90 minutes. Despite eight saves from the impressive Manuel Neuer, Bayern would still have left feeling worthy of their victory, and they are firmly in control heading into the second leg. 

Real Madrid cannot afford to look beyond Friday's match, as anything short of three points for the hosts would all but end the Spanish title race. Following their midweek exertions, it may be another awkward night for the hosts against a Girona side that has already beaten two of La Liga's top three in 2026. 

They were outstanding in their 2-1 home victory over local rivals Barcelona back in February. However, they have lacked consistency throughout the campaign, and they followed that win with just two points from their next three games against Alavés, Celta Vigo and Levante. 

It has also been a relatively quick turnaround for Míchel's team. They were in action on Monday night, seeing off Villarreal 1-0 thanks to an own goal from Pau Navarro. They climbed three places and onto 37 points as a result of that victory, all but ending any lingering relegation fears for a side that was propping up the table back in September. 

Such is the ridiculously congested nature of La Liga right now, Girona would climb to ninth and into serious European contention if they can back that up with a surprise win in Madrid. 

While they lack the quality of the team that finished third two seasons ago, the rebuilding job over the past two transfer windows has started to deliver results. Moroccan international Azzedine Ounahi has been the pick of their recent signings, but the likes of Vladyslav Vanat, Àlex Moreno and Vitor Reis have also made important contributions. 

Team News: 

Éder Militão and Jude Bellingham are both set to return to the starting lineup for Real Madrid following their recent injuries. Arbeloa may also rotate his full-backs, with Fran García and Dani Carvajal expected to start, while Camavinga should get the nod in midfield. 

The hosts will have to cope without the suspended Franco Mastantuono, while Thibaut Courtois and Rodrygo are out injured. 

Girona have been hit by a big blow this week with Vanat suffering a season-ending hamstring injury. The Ukrainian has top scored with nine league goals for Míchel's team, and his absence should serve up an opportunity for Abel Ruiz up front. 

Daley Blind is also a significant fitness doubt for the visitors. They will definitely be without the injured Marc-André ter Stegen, Donny van de Beek and Portu once more. 

Match Odds: 

Real Madrid are the 2/7 favourites to get back to winning ways. Girona are given an 8/1 chance of causing a major upset by collecting all the points, while the Draw is priced at 5/1. 

If you're expecting a strong response from Los Blancos after successive defeats, the hosts are priced at 4/5 with a -1.00 Handicap. They're on offer at 6/4 to win both halves, while you can back Arbeloa's men to win a match with over 3.5 goals at odds of 13/10. 

Alternatively, Girona are on offer at 11/4 to win either half. They're given a 3/1 chance of netting over 1.5 goals, while you can back Both teams to score at 8/11. 

Arbeloa must decide whether to rest either of his star forwards ahead of the second leg against Bayern, but Vinícius Júnior looks a likely starter given he didn't play from the off last weekend. The Brazilian is priced at 4/1 to score first and 1/1 to score anytime. Meanwhile, Mbappé is available at 4/9 to score at some stage. 

Alternative options in the Anytime Goalscorer market include Fede Valverde at 5/2, while Girona's dangerous winger Viktor Tsygankov is given an 18/5 chance of getting on the scoresheet. 

*You can place a bet on this match and check out all of our Real Madrid vs Girona Odds over on betfred.com

Bet 1 - First-half double chance - Draw or Girona @ 11/10 

Real Madrid barely got out of first gear last weekend in La Liga, and they have tended to be a second-half team under Arbeloa, which was the case again in midweek. They've been behind at the interval in each of their last three outings in all competitions. 72 hours on from an intense night of Champions League football, Los Blancos may again struggle to immediately get into their groove. 

Girona also tend to hold their own on the road for at least the first 45 minutes. They've been behind at the break in only three of their 15 away games in La Liga this term. In 10 of those matches they went in having not conceded. 

They have enough about them to be competitive in this match, and I'm backing them to be at least level at the interval at odds of 11/10. 

Bet 2 - Second half - Over 1.5 goals & Most corners - Real Madrid @ 20/21 via Bet Builder

The second half may start to become more stretched, and Real Madrid are likely to hold one or two players back who can come off the bench to open up the game in the latter stages. The hosts will need to go all out for the victory given the current standings at the top of La Liga. 

Girona's defence has been exposed more frequently on the other side of the break, with 64% of the goals they've conceded in the league this term coming in the second half. They have also scored 11 times after the 75th minute, which accounts for 34% of their total. 

The corner count should be won comfortably by Los Blancos. They are averaging 6.53 corners per game at home in La Liga, compared to Girona's 3.33 on the road. 

Given that, I'm using the Bet Builder to back Over 1.5 second-half goals and Most corners - Real Madrid at 20/21. 

You can check out Mark's Football Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...