Knights vs Raiders Prediction: Minor Premiers’ misery to continue with 5/2 pick
In what is arguably the most intriguing fixture of the NRL Premiership weekend, the Newcastle Knights host the Canberra Raiders on Sunday in a clash of teams seemingly heading in opposite directions (16:05 local, 07:05 BST, Watch NRL).
The 2025 Minor Premiers have slumped to three straight defeats while the Knights have started life under Justin Holbrook with a 75% record in their first four games. Read on for my Knights vs Raiders predictions, full team news and Betfred’s latest odds.
Knights vs Raiders Betting Tips
*odds correct at time of publishing
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There’s definitely an element of not wanting to underestimate last year’s leaders in the pricing for this game.
Ricky Stuart’s Raiders are 4/7 to win at the McDonald Jones Stadium despite not collecting any points since their golden-point extra-time win over Manly in Round 1.
The Knights’ price of 6/4 for the victory implies just a 40% probability, while it’s 16/1 about the draw in 80 minutes.
On the handicap market, the Knights are given a 4.5-point start for a 4/5 price, with the Raiders coming in to 20/21 against the one-try penalty.
Team News
The Knights make minimal changes as former St Helens boss Holbrook runs with a similar side to the one which stunned the Bulldogs at the Olympic Park last Saturday.
Pasami Saulo moves to the interchange bench to make way for Trey Mooney following the latter’s return from suspension. Cody Hopwood is listed as a reserve.
The biggest news for Stuart is the return of the inspirational Josh Papali’i from suspension. He steps in for ex-Wigan Warrior Morgan Smithies, who is among the substitute options.
Daine Laurie and Jed Stuart make way for Chevy Stewart and Matt Timoko within the interchange half-dozen.
Knights to Win @ 6/4
The Raiders have to hit form at some point. There’s still so much quality in their ranks that the Green Machine can’t be taken lightly.
And yet here I am tipping the Knights for the win. But that is the natural conclusion to draw from what has been staring at me over the first five weeks of this season.
From as early as that trip to Vegas in February, it has been clear that the Newcastle Knights of 2026 will be a very different prospect to their 2025 selves.
Holbrook has them looking far more cohesive as a defensive unit and infinitely more clinical in key areas of the field with ball in hand.
That has been borne out in their three wins from four thus far. And while I would not be one bit surprised to see the Raiders come good sooner rather than later, I just can’t go against the Knights given how these two sides have started.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Double Result: Knights-Knights @ 5/2
I get the distinct feeling that if Newcastle are going to win this one, they will likely need to be ahead early.
Any side struggling for form and confidence can end up being found wanting when falling behind in subsequent games, and if ‘Sticky’ Ricky’s Raiders fail to get out of the blocks quickly than it will be both and mental and physical battle to rein the Knights back in.
Just look at what Holbrook’s troops managed against the Bulldogs last week, helping themselves to a 16-0 half-time lead and then staying strong when that was reduced to a four-point gap.
Dom Young went on to pick off the Dogs for two more tries late on, and I think it would play into the Knights’ hands once more if the Raiders also got desperate.
The 5/2 price on this one looks as big as a beach ball.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.
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