Chelsea vs PSG Prediction: First-leg goalscorer Gusto good for another couple of shots

A shocking final 20 minutes in last Wednesday's first leg has left Chelsea with a mountain to climb in the second leg of their Uefa Champions League last-16 tie against Paris Saint-Germain at Stamford Bridge this Tuesday (20:00 GMT, TNT Sports 2). The Blues were drawing in the 74th minute at the Parc des Princes when Vitinha put the reigning French and European champions in front for the third time, and substitute Khvicha Kvaratskhelia bagged a brace to make the score 5-2 heading into the return fixture in west London.

Below are my Chelsea vs PSG predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Chelsea wingers Estevao and Jamie Gittens, who have both spent over a month out of action with hamstring issues, are doubtful of featuring on Tuesday, just like goalkeeper Filip Jorgensen (groin), who made a shocking error for PSG's third goal last week before missing out on Saturday's 1-0 Premier League home defeat to Newcastle United due to injury.

Reece James (hamstring) and Levi Colwill (knee) have been ruled out for Liam Rosenior's side.

Football Odds

Fabian Ruiz (knee) and Quentin Ndjantou (muscle) are the only confirmed injury absentees for Luis Enrique's PSG side, who had the weekend off in Ligue 1.

Chelsea vs PSG Odds

Chelsea are 11/10 to win in regulation time on Tuesday, implying a 47.76% probability of success, while PSG are 15/8, or a 34.8% chance, to do the double over their English counterparts, with the draw offered at 10/3.

The Blues are 7/1 to win the tie by any means, with Les Parisiens 1/16 in the same market.

Betfred's Price Boosts include Chelsea to Win, Chelsea Most Corners & PSG Most Cards at 9/2 (was 7/2).

Bet Builder - Malo Gusto (CHE) 2+ Shots & Moises Caicedo (CHE) 1+ Shots @ 13/5

Chelsea right-back Malo Gusto scored his side's first equaliser in Paris last week, which would've been particularly sweet as a former Lyon player.

The 22-year-old saw a second effort blocked in the 74th minute, taking his per 90 average to 0.9 in this season's Champions League.

With James ruled out Tuesday's return fixture, Gusto is a certainty to start at right-back at Stamford Bridge, and he's likely to play the majority, if not all, of the game. He shot twice in Chelsea's last European home game, a 1-0 victory over Pafos FC on January 21, too.

I'm adding a shot in for his teammate, midfielder Moises Caicedo, who scored the only goal of the game in that win against Pafos with his fourth and final attempt.

The Ecuador international is averaging 0.9 shots per 90 in both the Premier League and Champions League.

With the Blues needing to win by at least three goals on Tuesday, expect several shots taken from outside the penalty, at least one of which could be from the boot of Caicedo.

Featured Bet Builders - Chelsea 1+ Corner in the First 10 Mins @ 6/5

You'd think Chelsea would need to score an early goal to give themselves the belief that they can overturn PSG's three-goal aggregate lead, so I'm backing the Blues to make a fast start in front of their home faithful on Tuesday.

Rosenior's side took two corners in the first 10 minutes of the first leg, and in their last big Champions League home game, a 3-0 victory over FC Barcelona on November 25, they won the first corner in the third minute, while they took two in the opening 10 minutes against Newcastle on the weekend.

PSG also conceded a corner in the first 10 minutes of their knockout phase play-off second leg against AS Monaco on February 25.

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