Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Trends: More McManus dominance?

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Our in-house Horse Racing tipster Owen McMahon has gone through the card for Tuesday's Races and made a selection for every race. Read who he's backing and why with our Cheltenham Day 1 Tips. Add to that former Jockey Katie Walsh has passed on her Cheltenham Tuesday Tips to us here at Betfred.

14:40 Cheltenham Odds

National Hunt Novices' Handicap Chase Key Historical Trends

Age

• This race is restricted to four-year-olds only, so every race winner has been four - and every contender this year is also four years old.

Official Rating (OR)

• 11 of last 12 winners rated 125 to 139  

• Typical winning rating range: 125 to 139 

Look for the top-rated horse on the flat. They’ve won the four runnings of this race, also posting one second and one third. Last year Hot Fuss finished fourth off 93, and Lark In The Mornin, winner in 2024 and Ndaawi (third) were equal-joint on 93. 

Brazil was the third top-rated flat runner when he won in 2022, with the two top ratings finishing fifth and eighth. Before that, second top flat rated was Joseph O’Brien’s winner, Band Of Outlaws on 93.

Last Time Out (LTO) Position  

• 9 of last 21 winners won LTO  
• But only four of the last 14

Nine of the 21 winners won last time out (and also eight that finished second), but that theory may be tailing off as only four of the last 14 won last time out. Interestingly, four of the last seven came straight from Naas so it’s worth watching for those runners. 

Dabiroun and What a Charm were both maiden winners, while Flying Tiger and Une Artiste each finished fourth in the G2 Adonis at Kempton last time out. Lark In The Morning had shown promise in three juvenile maidens and was no bigger than 3/1 in any of them. Last year’s winner Puturhandstogether was second in an all-aged novice at Fairyhouse before winning this one.  

Runs This Season  

• Four of the last 15 winners won on their first attempt over hurdles
• Four maiden winners in 21  

Lark In The Mornin, Diego du Charmil, What A Charm and Dabiroun back in 2005 were the only four maidens to win in the last 21. In 2022, Gaelic Warrior was a maiden, and had raced only in France. Flying Tiger took four attempts to win a hurdle but only two of those were in the UK. 

Une Artiste and Sanctuaire had been running in France but both won on their first starts in England. Aramax and Jazzy Matty had five previous hurdle runs.

Trainer Trends  

Trainers with strong records:  

• Irish trainers have won the last eight runnings
• O'Brien and Elliott have won three apiece in that time
• JP McManus has owned three of the last six winners
• JP McManus has owned the most recent three favs. All SP under 7/2, all well beaten.

Irish-trained horses have dominated this event, winning the last eight runnings. JP McManus looks to have cast his spell over this race with three of the last six winners, while he has also owned the most recent three favourites, all under 7/2 and all well beaten. He will hope for a different fate for current favourite Saratoga, who may go off as favourite again. 

Market Trends  

• Band Of Outlaws 2019 only fav to win since 2010
• Only 27 of the last 72 top-six finishers have been under 16/1
• But 23 of those 27 have come from the last seven renewals

In the last 12 years only 27 in total from the first six home have been under 16/1. That's 27 from a possible 72. 23 of those 27 have come from the last seven renewals. It may be worth looking down the order in search of value. 

Final Shortlist  

Horses matching most trends: 
1. Manlaga
2. Saratoga
3. Glen to Glen  

💡 Tip: Most Cheltenham race winners match 70–90% of the key trends, so you don’t need a perfect score.