Real Madrid vs Benfica Prediction: Los Blancos to prevail

| Wednesday 25th February 2026, 6:11am

Wednesday 25th February 2026, 6:11am

Realmadrid-vs-benfica-prediction-betting-tips-25-02-2026

Real Madrid take a 1-0 lead into the second leg of their Champions League play-off tie against Benfica following a controversial night in Lisbon last Tuesday. The two meet at the Santiago Bernabeu on Wednesday (20:00 GMT, TNT Sports 1) for round two.

Mark Sochon presents his Real Madrid vs Benfica predictions below.

Real Madrid vs Benfica Betting Tips

Bet 1 - Real Madrid -1.00 Handicap @ 11/10
Bet 2 - Will there be a penalty awarded? - Yes @ 13/8

*odds correct at time of publication

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The first leg was settled by a brilliant solo goal from Vinicius Junior. However, that was quickly overshadowed by allegations of racist abuse made by the Brazilian against the home team’s Gianluca Prestianni.

The Argentine has since been handed a provisional one-match ban by Uefa, which will see him miss the second leg. That will only marginally cool the tensions ahead of what promises to be a heated affair at the Santiago Bernabéu.

Jose Mourinho will also serve a touchline ban on his return to Madrid. The Portuguese coach is still highly thought of by many in the Spanish capital, but was widely criticised for his handling of last week’s events.

The winners of this tie will face Sporting CP or Manchester City in the round of 16. Los Blancos are firmly in control, having put in a much better defensive display in the first leg than was the case when they shipped four goals against Benfica on the final matchday in the league phase.

However, the jury is still out on Alvaro Arbeloa. Xabi Alonso’s replacement suffered his third defeat at the weekend, as Real Madrid slumped to a 2-1 loss in Pamplona against Osasuna. That resulted in Barcelona regaining top spot in La Liga, with Arbeloa’s decision to start both Dani Carvajal and David Alaba in defence, despite their combined lack of match fitness, a highly questionable one.

The Real Madrid boss would have clearly had one eye on the second leg of this tie. His team will be happy to return to their own ground, having reeled off six straight victories at the Bernabéu since losing 2-1 to City in the league phase. Their overall home win ratio this season stands at an impressive 88% across all competitions.

That’s a measure of the task facing Benfica, who were 3-0 winners against AVS on Saturday in the Portuguese Primeira Liga. They’ve not lost all season in the league, but seven draws mean they still trail both Porto and Sporting in the title race.

In Europe, Benfica only scraped into the play-off round by virtue of a 98th-minute goal from keeper Anatoliy Trubin against Los Blancos in their final league fixture. That capped an extraordinary turnaround, after they lost each of their opening four games.

A 2-0 victory in Amsterdam against Ajax on matchday five was the start of their revival, although they did lose their other three away games in the league phase by an aggregate score of 6-0. Benfica have failed to net in four of their last five away Champions League fixtures.

They will need to score at least once to stand any chance of progress on Wednesday night. Left winger Andreas Schjelderup struck twice against Real Madrid in January and will be hoping to ask questions of an improving Trent Alexander-Arnold, while striker Vangelis Pavlidis tends to be their main goal threat. He’s having an exceptional domestic season, with 20 goals in 23 league appearances.

Team News:

Real Madrid are set to be missing Jude Bellingham, Dani Ceballos, Eder Militao, and Dean Huijsen due to injuries. Raul Asencio is expected to replace Huijsen in central defence in what could be the only change from the first leg.

The hosts are also missing Rodrygo due to suspension, with Vinicius set to partner Kylian Mbappe in a front two once more.

As for Benfica, Prestianni’s suspension will force Mourinho into at least one alteration from last week. Summer signing Dodi Lukebakio has recently returned to fitness and is one candidate to replace the Argentine on the right flank.

Joao Veloso and Samuel Soares are sidelined due to injuries, while Heorhiy Sudakov is struggling with a back problem, which leaves him doubtful.

Real Madrid vs Benfica Predicted Lineups

Real Madrid: Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Asencio, Rudiger, Carreras; Valverde, Guler, Tchouameni, Guler; Mbappe, Vinicius
Benfica: Trubin; Dedic, Araujo, Otamendi, Dahl; Rios, Aursnes; Lukebakio, Rafa, Schjelderup; Pavlidis

Real Madrid vs Benfica Odds

Real Madrid head into this match as the 4/9 favourites to win the second leg and seal comfortable progress. You can back the Draw at 4/1. Meanwhile, Benfica are priced at 5/1 to win the match in 90 minutes, and 7/1 to win the tie.

Both teams to score landed in each of Real Madrid’s final four league-phase outings and it’s on offer at 4/6 here. You can back the hosts to score over 2.5 goals at 5/4, while Los Blancos are priced at 2/1 to win both halves.

Alternatively, you can back Benfica to win either half at 9/5. The visitors are priced at 9/4 to give themselves a chance by scoring over 1.5 goals in the game.

Mbappe is the 11/5 favourite to score first, while he’s on offer at 8/15 to score anytime. However, the Frenchman hasn’t netted in either of his last two matches, with a few lingering doubts over his current fitness level.

Vinicius is in great form. He scored again at Osasuna at the weekend to move onto five goals in four appearances in all competitions. He’s available at 9/2 to score first, and 6/5 to score anytime here.

From a visiting perspective, you can back Pavlidis to get on the scoresheet at 7/4, while Schjelderup is available in the Anytime Goalscorer market at 5/1.

Bet 1 - Real Madrid -1.00 Handicap @ 11/10

There have been few moments this season when this Real Madrid squad has felt like a happy camp with everyone pulling in the same direction, but the events of last week have clearly had a unifying effect. That mood should also transmit to the supporters inside the Bernabéu, who have frequently turned on their own team in recent months, but are sure to give Benfica a hostile welcome on Wednesday following a controversial first leg.

Real Madrid do frequently save their best football for this competition, particularly when they’re at home in the second leg. They were the superior team last week, creating the better chances across the 90 minutes, and the Spanish giants have won five of their last six home games by margins of two or more goals.

I’m expecting them to be too strong for Benfica in this match, and I’m backing Real Madrid -1.00 Handicap at 11/10.

Real Madrid vs Benfica - Handicap +1

Real Madrid -1

11/10

Bet Here

Odds correct at time of publishing.

Bet 2 - Will there be a penalty awarded? - Yes @ 13/8

After two incident-packed meetings already in 2026, it’s hard to see this tie concluding in a drama-free fashion. With two rapid, skillful forwards, Real Madrid are always a strong candidate to get penalties awarded, and they’ve won 17 already this season in all competitions.

They do have their weaknesses at the other end, though. Los Blancos have conceded penalties in each of their last two league games, while three were awarded in total in their last outing at the Bernabéu, as they brushed aside Real Sociedad 4-1.

At odds of 13/8, I can see value in backing a penalty awarded at some stage in this game.

Real Madrid vs Benfica - Will There Be A Penalty Awarded?

Yes

13/8

Bet Here

Odds correct at time of publishing.

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Mark Sochon P/L 25/26 Season:

Points Staked: 173
Points Returned: 164.85
P/L: -8.15

You can check out Mark's Football Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...