Knights vs Cowboys Prediction: Viva Las Vegas! 2/1 Newcastle up for another opening win

For the third year running, the NRL Premiership season begins under the bright lights of Las Vegas when the Newcastle Knights and North Queensland Cowboys meet at the Allegiant Stadium on Saturday night (18:30 local, 02:30 Sunday GMT, live on Sky Sports Action).

The Knights have a point to prove after finishing with the wooden spoon in 2025, while the Cowboys also have ground to make up if they are to challenge for the finals this year. My Knights vs Cowboys predictions follow, with the latest team news and Betfred’s match odds.

Knights vs Cowboys Odds

While Newcastle brought up the rear last season, they have brought in former St Helens and Gold Coast Titans coach Justin Holbrook for the ’26 campaign.

And that new sense of direction is reflected in the Betfred odds, with the Knights a 5/4 shout for a win on opening night in Sin City. That implies a 44.4% probability.

Cowboys are still the favourites though, with Todd Payten’s side 8/11 for the two competition points.

The draw is a 14/1 chance, while North Queensland give up a 3.5-point start on the two-way handicap in return for a lengthened 5/6 price. The Knights are 10/11 in that scenario.

Team News

Kalyn Ponga is back and refreshed, with the foot injury which ended his season in June last year having been overcome. The skipper will line up at full-back in Vegas, while Fletcher Sharpe and Dane Gagai are both beyond hamstring issues and will also start.

New signing Dylan Brown, around whom there is great fanfare, is included in the halves.

Rugby League Odds

The Cowboys suffered a blow before the competitive action got underway, with Zac Laybutt banned following an illegal lift in the Pre-Season Challenge. He misses the first two games of the Premiership campaign as a result.

Tom Chester will play an NRL game for the first time in 20 months after recovering from an ACL injury, while Reed Mahoney is the starting hooker after his switch from the Canterbury Bulldogs.

England international John Bateman is in the initial squad, but is listed as one of the reserves at number 19.

Handicap 3-way Alt 4: Knights -4 @ 2/1

Maybe it’s just a quirk that the Knights have won six of their last eight opening-day fixtures. Perhaps there’s something about their preparation that makes them a great Round 1 side.

Either way, I see them as a decent proposition for 2026.

Holbrook is a coach with great pedigree who set St Helens up for a period of dominance with his excellent approach in the late 2010s. He then went to the Titans and shook off their perennial wooden spoon status.

At Newcastle he has some big-game players on his hands in the likes of Ponga and new-boy Brown.

And first up, with the eyes of the rugby league world on them, I fancy the Knights to show that they’re a different kettle of fish this year.

I could go for the straight win tip at 5/4, but for value I’m backing them to win by a score at 2/1 with its implied 33.3% probability.

Double Result: Knights-Knights @ 23/10

If Newcastle are going to win this one, I feel it is almost certain to come off the back of a fast start.

Four of their six wins last season came off the back of winning first halves, and the confidence of a decent opening will surely give them the edge in the second stanza.

So the 23/10 available for them to hold on to a lead at the interval looks very appealing, with the implied 30.3% probability underestimating the Knights in my mind.

You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.