Sri Lanka vs England Prediction: Backing those Number Four’s in 3rd ODI

The ODI series in Sri Lanka is all tied-up following England's successful run chase on Saturday afternoon in the second ODI. Jamie Pacheco previews the third match between Sri Lanka and England, starting 09:00 on Tuesday, January 27 and live on TNT Sports 1.  

Jamie has Joe Root to thank for showing a profit last time round and in a tricky game to call on a tricky wicket, is keeping stakes sensible with two small bets on batsmen at 9/2 and 5/1...

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Team News:

Sri Lanka left a good 20-25 runs out there after they got to bat first. It could have made all the difference. Sure, in the end, the scorecard suggests it wouldn't have that much of a difference, but the only reason that Jos Buttler was able to play with the freedom he did at the end was… because he could with a sub-par target.   

Had that been 250 and things could have been very different.  

A needless runout of Kusal Mendis, their batting hero from the first game, stopped them in their tracks and worse still, they committed the cardinal sin of not batting out their overs. Fine, only three balls were wasted, but it shouldn't have come to that.  

Still, they were decent with the ball and had another wicket or two fallen a bit earlier, it really could have gone down to the wire.  

Hasaranga missed out again, and he, too, could have made all the difference. In the absence of any official announcement about it, my gut instinct is that they don't want to risk an injury-prone player in 50-over games with the T20 World Cup just around the corner and that they'll play him in the T20s. As far as I'm concerned, that's fair enough. But let's see.   

England 

England bowled better in general and, more importantly, had the good sense to realise that the more overs of spin they bowled, the better.  

Jamie Overton played his part with 2-21 but it was notable that despite going well, he only bowled five overs and they weren't tempted to give him anymore because they felt he'd done his job and that they shouldn't force the issue. Sam Curran bowled just four and five different spinners were used. For a change, England used their brains on a cricket field.  

Still, they have the batting deity that is Joe Root to thank for making it look pretty straightforward. His brilliant 75 off 90 on a difficult pitch (we'll come to that in a second) was a masterclass in skill, knowledge, judgment and experience. It also gave us a good winner at 14/5, putting us in profit for the match, after we had him for top bat. Here's what we said ahead of the game about him:  

"He looked in great touch, has a good record on the subcontinent, is their best player of spin, and lost to Duckett as top bat by just one run on Thursday. All good enough reasons to back him at 14/5." Indeed.   

On another note, I've just about had it with Harry Brook. I won't go into the ins and outs of what he's been through in the last few weeks, and I'm not judging him for having a drink, but on this occasion, he could have done well to have kept his mouth shut.     

In the aftermath of the game, he complained it was the worst wicket he'd ever played on. Anyone would have thought that SL were bowled out for 110 and that England lost eight wickets in getting there. Too much hard work for you to actually knuckle down and be patient on a tricky wicket? Upset that it wasn't a flat one at Bangalore where 350 is par and you can hit every ball through the line, are we?  

As it happened, he did actually knuckle down himself when he needed to, but as far as I'm concerned, it's exactly a nice variety of wickets and completely different par scores that makes cricket interesting. 

They should play the same side again. The promotion of Rehan Ahmed to opening was an interesting move, but I quite liked it.   

Pitch and conditions 

We're at Colombo yet again, so we should really know what to expect.  

Get to 250-260 batting first, and it's yours to lose. If there are fewer than 75 overs of spin bowled in the match, I'd be surprised.  

Match Winner odds. 

11/10 on Sri Lanka plays 8/11 on England. Sadly, we gave back our profits from our Game One on Sri Lanka in Game Two when we stuck with them, though Root bailed us out anyway. At least I didn't go too big on the wager on them as I had implied, a stark reminder that there are no certainties in cricket, or any other sport, for that matter.  

Sri Lanka are arguably still a value price, but I'll leave this market alone this time.   

*For all the latest and live Sri Lanka vs England 3rd ODI Odds then head over to betfred.com 

Sri Lanka/England Top Batsman  

There are some pretty stingy prices out there on the top bowler markets and when 6-8 bowlers per team are all given a go, it's not easy to make much sense of anything. For example, Joe Root was given 2.3 overs the other day and took 2-13.  

So I'll keep stakes low and go with two batsmen at decent prices. 

Dhananjaya de Silva, in his element in these conditions, played well for his 40 the other day and batting at four, will certainly get a fair crack of the whip.  The 9/2 is perfectly acceptable.   

I really wouldn't be surprised if Root goes out and does it all over again, but instead, I'll take a chance on Jacob Bethell, a good player of spin and also a player who bats at four for his side, looks decent at the price to top score for his side. He's 5/1 to Root's 13/5.  

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New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Jamie Pacheco Cricket P/L 2025:

• Points Staked: 146
• Points Returned: 151.7 
• Final P/L: +5.7pts 

Jamie Pacheco Cricket P/L 2026:  

• Points Staked: 10
• Points Returned: 12.71
• Current P/L: +2.71

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...