Portsmouth vs Southampton Prediction: Inexperienced ref to get card happy

Whenever there is a big game involving Portsmouth to be previewed, the resident Pompey mush puts his hand up and takes the assignment. On Sunday, we have the second South Coast derby of the season, and it should be a real throwback lunchtime game.

Kick-off is set for midday with Sky Sports+ streaming the match, and our preview is focusing very much on one man, someone who isn't on the payroll of either club. Let's check out our Portsmouth vs Southampton Predictions...

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The first thing I do whenever I preview a rivalry game is look up who the referee is. That gives a good indication for how the match might go. Shockingly the assignment has gone to Lewis Smith, who is very inexperienced and has split his time between the Championship and the non-league so far this season. This decision seems mind-boggling but one thing it does do, is get me thinking about booking points and player cards markets. Spoiler alert, I think we’ll be delving into that in more detail later on.

When it comes to team news, Portsmouth have actually spent some money and brought some new blood in to bolster their squad in recent days. Ebou Adams has already added strength to a lightweight midfield, Millenic Alli wasn’t wanted at League 1 Luton but has already looked the part and Keshi Anderson could be involved having arrived from Birmingham City.

Star players Callum Lang and Josh Murphy are not expected to be available having been out injured for a while now.

As for Southampton, things have certainly been trending in the right direction since the change of manager and mid-table safety seems to be the floor for this set of players. A 1-0 win on Wednesday did end a run of seven matches without a victory for Tonda Eckert’s side and despite steadying the ship when he took over from Will Still, there have been rumours of discontent among Southampton fans.

A 2-3 win in the FA Cup at Doncaster Rovers was one match that particularly stands out as one the locals were not happy with, having been up 0-3 at the half but having to hold on late against lowly League 1 opposition.

The Saints though did spend heavily in the summer and have an array of attacking talent available with the likes of Ross Stewart, Tom Fellows, Finn Azaz and Leo Scienza, all of whom would probably waltz into the Pompey side.

Match Odds:

Southampton are very much the favourites here in Betfred to win the South Coast derby. 6/5 is the price with the hosts all the way out at 9/4 to get a win over their bitter rivals. You can back the draw at 23/10.

The Over/Under 2.5 Goals market is at 10/11 both ways, with Both Teams to Score favoured at 8/11. The top three players in the goalscorer markets are all Saints, with Colby Bishop the top Pompey player priced up at 11/2 to open the scoring.

You can check out all of our Portsmouth vs Southampton Odds on betfred.com

Portsmouth vs Southampton FAQ:

Bet 1 - Booking Points - Over 42.5 @ 1/1

As hinted at earlier, this is going to be one of my key insights looking ahead to this match. An inexperienced referee who averages the best part of four cards-per-game immediately generates betting interest. He has enjoyed a handful of Premier League appointments but this will be by far the biggest match he’s officiated.

The reverse fixture saw six yellow cards, so cruised past the booking points number here and that game was at St Mary’s. Playing at Fratton Park, in January, in expected heavy rain is a completely different kettle of fish. The atmosphere will be far more feral and I would not be stunned if Smith gets very card happy.

Bet 2 - Taylor Harwood-Bellis to be carded @ 3/1

Yes. I’m sticking with the referee angle. England international Taylor Harwood-Bellis has already been shown six yellow cards this campaign. With news reports linking him with a move to Burnley, will his mind be completely on the game should he start?

The 23-year-old has been playing on the right side of a back three and will be up against Alli, who has looked lively since his arrival from Luton. Given the atmosphere, the expected weather and slick surface, I would fully expect a mistimed tackle or two and think that 3/1 for a card feels big.

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You can check out Neil's Football Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Football writers on our Football home page...