Tunisia vs Uganda Prediction: 16/5 Tunisia tip counts on a Crane drain

Rabat plays host to the final game of four on Tuesday in the Africa Cup of Nations when Tunisia begin their Group C assault against Uganda (21:00 local, 20:00 GMT, live on 4seven and Channel 4 Sport YouTube).

The 2004 winners are looking to improve on a 2023 campaign which was among the worst they have ever delivered at Afcon. My Tunisia vs Uganda predictions follow below, complete with full team news and Betfred’s latest match odds.

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Team News

In his third Afcon in charge of Tunisia, and the first of his second spell as national team boss, Sami Trabelsi has named a squad featuring the likes of Burnley’s Hannibal Mejbri and Sebastian Tounekti of Celtic.

And both could start in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Sheffield Wednesday’s Yan Valery and Nice’s Ali Abdi as full-backs. Hazem Mastouri should lead the line looking to add to his four goals in 13 international appearances.

Paul Put will pick from a set of Uganda players currently plying their club trades in 16 different nations. First up, he looks likely to select Steven Mukwala as his target man rather than the much-travelled Uche Ikpeazu.

Hibernian’s Jordan Obita ought to partner former Italy youth international Elio Capradossi at the heart of defence.

Tunisia vs Uganda Odds

Tunisia are 4/6 for the win at the Rabat Olympic Stadium, with the draw available at 5/2 and Uganda 9/2. That implies an 18.2% probability of the Cranes causing an upset.

It’s a 6/5 bet for Both Teams to Score, with 8/13 available for that not to be the case.

Today's Football Fixtures

Only Tunisia to Score @ 7/5

There’s a fair difference in class between these two nations when you run down their respective squads, and that is true of all departments.

Tunisia have dynamic attacking talents where Uganda have journeymen lacking in cutting edge.

And the Carthage Eagles boast a durable, experienced defence which accounts for 384 international caps compared to the 160 compiled by Uganda’s back line.

It’s going to be very difficult for the underdogs to break through against that kind of quality, so I love the look of the 7/5 available for Tunisia to win without conceding.

Football Odds

Half-Time/Full-Time: Draw/Tunisia @ 16/5

While I expect them to get there in the end, Tunisia won’t find it easy to get past a side which Put has set up really well.

The Cranes’ run of seven-and-a-half games without a concession in normal play prior to November’s friendly loss to Morocco says much about how obdurate his side can be.

To that end, and without the evidence already available from this tournament of outsiders sticking it out into the second half, I like the value available for Tunisia to get the job done after the break.

They’re a 16/5 punt to transform a half-time tie into three points, so I’m getting behind Trabelsi’s troops to do exactly that at an implied probability of 23.8%.

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