Benfica vs Napoli Prediction: Back Otamendi to see yellow…again

It’s last-chance saloon territory for Jose Mourinho and Benfica as they host Napoli in the Champions League on Wednesday night, kick off 20:00, live on TNT Sports.  

Jamie Pacheco has a main tip that’s reliant on the end result and two further ones involving players at 5/2 and 12/5, including one that came good for him not so long ago in his Benfica vs Bayer Leverkusen Preview article. Let's check out his Benfica vs Napoli Predictions here on Betfred Insights...

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Match Preview:

Benfica 

Another week at Benfica, another week of regression with a draw against Sporting on Friday giving league leaders Porto a boost and making it just that little bit harder for Benfica to try and win the title. 

 As ever, a safety-first approach from Jose Mourinho led to a pretty poor match and though they recovered from 1-0 down to at least get a point, there was little or no desire to take risks even if it meant losing the match. All familiar territory if you've been following the ex-Chelsea manager's career.  

A 2-0 win last time out away at Ajax in this competition resulted in a decent win for us at 6/5 because we had 'no' on both teams to score, but it hasn't helped Benfica 's cause too much.  

They're currently 30th and have plenty of work to do to gatecrash a Top 24 finish. Anything other than a win here and it should be game over in that regard.  

Alexander Bah and Bruma continue to be unavailable through injury.   

Napoli  

Napoli are 10 places and four points better off than Benfica in the Champions League and will fancy their chances of making the Playoffs, at the very least.  

Even if things go wrong here, they have a very winnable game away at Copenhagen after Christmas and a home tie against Chelsea, so four points from those two matches could well be enough. 

They were decent at the weekend, albeit against a poor Juventus side, winning 2-1.   

Both goals were scored by on-loan Man Utd striker Rasmus Hojlund, making it six for the season for Napoli. Decent, not spectacular.  

Napoli have some injury concerns, though. There's no Kevin de Bruyne until February, with Billy Gilmour, Matteo Politano, Stanislav Lobotka and Frank Anguissa also out injured.  

Match Odds:

As has been the case for the last two months or so, Benfica look overrated in the betting.  

They're 11/8 to win the match, which is 42% implied probability: it's 21/10 Napoli (32%) and 23/10 on the draw. 

Let's take a minute to consider why that's a poor price on Benfica. They've lost four of their five games in the Champions League, only beating the side that's currently rock bottom.  

They almost lost at Nacional a couple of weeks ago, needing a couple of late goals to get over the line by the skin of their teeth; they missed a good opportunity to get back in the title race with a win on Friday due to negativity and well, just not being good enough.  

Sound like an 11/8 shot against the reigning Serie A champions managed by a certain Antonio Conte? Not for me.  

*You can check out Betfred's full market on this match by visiting our Benfica vs Napoli Odds page on betfred.com

Draw No Bet  

So how do we go about opposing Benfica based on the theory that they're too short? The straight win on Napoli at 21/10 is a reasonable price, and if you want to play it safer, then the 3/5 on Napoli or Draw on the Double chance market looks decent, too.  

But I just about prefer Napoli on the Draw/No Bet market. If Benfica wins (can't see it happening), you lose your money, a draw sees your stake returned, and Napoli's win would see you paid out at 6/5.  

Otamendi and Hojlund  

There are two other bets involving players that catch the eye.  

The first is that our old friend Nicolas Otamndi gets carded. He somehow avoided a booking against Sporting but was carded in two of his last three CL matches, has seven yellows for the season in total, to go with a red on international duty. The 5/2 will do us just fine.  

My first instinct was that Scott McTominay, who seems to improve by the game, was a fair price at 16/5 to grab a goal here, given I think Napoli will score at least once.  

But surely that man Hojlund has to be preferred at the slightly shorter price of 5/2 given he plays so much further up the pitch and is fresh from that weekend brace? He's the one we're going with, though there's not much wrong with McTominay's price, either.  

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Jamie Pacheco Football P/L 2025 (Excludes 3-3-3 column):