Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel Prediction: Home advantage enough for Hamburg

Hamburger SV host Holstein Kiel in the DFB Pokal Round of 16 at the Volksparkstadium on Wednesday evening with the aim of reaching the quarter-finals for the first time since 2022.

HSV are one of the most storied and iconic teams in Germany but spent seven seasons in the second tier before finally earning promotion back to the Bundesliga in May. As Hamburg went up, Holstein Kiel went down after just one campaign in the top flight and will now be plotting a giant killing having swapped places with their opponents ahead of this season. Read on for my Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel predictions.

Team News

Hamburg are set to be without captain Yussuf Poulsen due to injury with the forward not featuring since a 1-1 draw with Borussia Dortmund in early November. Midfielder Daniel Elfadli and centre-back Warmed Omari have also been ruled out.

As for Holstein Kiel, USA international John Tolkin is a doubt after going off injured in Saturday’s 1-0 defeat by Hertha Berlin. Andi Kelati, Patrick Erras and Steven Skrzybski are expected to miss out once again.

Match Odds

Hamburg are 8/11 to win the game on Wednesday night, while Holstein Kiel can be backed at 16/5 to pull off a shock while a draw is on offer at 11/4.

Both teams to score is somewhat expected at 4/7 while over 2.5 goals is similarly priced, while over 3.5 is 6/4.

Hamburg to win @ 8/11

Hamburg are the favourites in this one and should progress but Merlin Polzin will have to make sure his team do a professional job as Holstein Kiel have already claimed one Bundesliga scalp this season.

The Storks knocked out Wolfsburg with a 1-0 victory at the Volkswagen Arena in late October as Sweden international Alexander Bernhardsson scored from the penalty spot shortly before half-time.

Hamburg should go into the game high on confidence having ended a five-game winless run in the Bundesliga with a 2-1 home victory over sixth-placed Stuttgart. 

Football Odds

The Red Shorts were reduced to ten men late in the second half when Alexander Rossing-Lelesiit was dismissed in the 81st minute with the score at 1-1, but were still able to clinch the win in stoppage time through on-loan midfielder Fabio Vieira.

While Hamburg will be looking to make it back-to-back wins for the first time this season, Holstein Kiel come into this having lost three of their last four games, having registered just two victories in their previous nine, and are languishing in 13th in the Bundesliga 2 standings.

With home advantage and a confidence-boosting win behind them, Hamburg should have enough quality to get the job done in 90 minutes.

Under 2.5 goals @ 11/10

This is likely to be a low-scoring affair with Hamburg netting at a rate of less than a goal per game in the Bundesliga while Holstein Kiel have scored 14 goals in 14 matches in the second tier.

Even in the German Cup, the two teams have each scored only three goals in two clashes to reach this stage of the competition.

Hamburg have scored more than two goals at home on just one occasion while the Storks have not scored more than one goal on the road since August.

This looks set to be a tight game and so backing under 2.5 goals looks a smart pick with Hamburg set to edge it to reach the last eight.

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