Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur Stats-Based Bet Builder Tips: 14/1 on Arsenal to drop points

The headline game of the Premier League weekend is, without a doubt, Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday (16:30, Sky Sports Main Event.) The Gunners sit top of the table and will hope to maintain or extend their four-point lead over Manchester City by the time the north London derby comes to a close. 

Spurs boss Thomas Frank will be desperate to make a big impression in his first NLD, and below you can find my Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur Stats-Based Bet Builder Tips.

Match Result - Draw

This is a simple Bet Builder for Sunday’s giant clash, but I do believe it offers excellent value. Let’s start with my first selection, which is going against the grain somewhat. Arsenal are just 2/5 to take the win in this game, and that feels far too short for my liking. 

I know they are the current league leaders and look like they are set to finally end their Premier League title drought this term, but I don’t like how many injuries they have picked up to key players. Viktor Gyokeres, Martin Odegaard and Gabriel Martinelli are all doubts to make the squad and unlikely to start, while Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus are out for a longer period of time. 

Things got worse for Mikel Arteta over the international break as key defender Gabriel picked up an adductor injury in Brazil’s win over Senegal - coincidentally at the Emirates Stadium. He is likely to be sidelined and his absence always impacts the Gunners. 

Since the start of 2022/23, Arsenal have won 67.6% of their Premier League games when Gabriel has started (75/111), compared to just 50% without him (7/14).

Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur Odds

He’s also scored 11 goals, nine with his head during that time, so the home side will massively miss his aerial presence at both ends. Mikel Merino is likely to have to deputise up front for Gyokeres, and although Arsenal have decent squad depth, they are definitely weaker than they could be so I think Spurs can definitely get something. 

Tottenham haven't won in five on home soil, but their away form is one of the best in the league. They’ve got the joint-most points on the road (13), scored the joint-most goals (12) and conceded the fewest goals (three) when we only take their away results into account. 

Given the number of injuries Arsenal have, and the fact Spurs under Frank are tough to beat on the road, I think a draw is the most likely outcome. 

Cristian Romero and Joao Palhinha to get booked

I do think this encounter will see plenty of cards as well. There’s a lot on the line, and Tottenham in particular are going to have to make several fouls to stop a potential Arsenal onslaught. Cristian Romero is a walking foul merchant, and only three players in the entire league have picked up more yellow cards than the four he has collected in 2025/26. 

He’s one away from a suspension, but I don’t think that will see him hold back on derby day. Meanwhile, Joao Palhinha is incredibly combative, and has picked up three yellow cards already this term, including in his last game against Manchester United.

I think Spurs are going to defend deep and make some big challenges, so let’s back these two to get booked and take our Bet Builder to 14/1.

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