India vs South Africa Prediction: Big-priced Proteas to win again
Jamie Pacheco previews the much-awaited Second Test between India and South Africa, which will be played at Guwahati on Saturday morning UK time. The match will start at 03:30 and be broadcast live on TNT Sports.
Jamie thinks South Africa's spinners can match India’s and is going for the tourists to make it a 2-0 series win, while there are split stakes on India batsmen at 6/1 and 7/1.
India vs South Africa Betting Tips
- 1pt Back South Africa to win @ 5/2
- 0.5pts Back Washington Sundar to be India Top Batsman @ 7/1
- 0.5pts Back Ravindra Jadeja to be India Top Batsman @ 6/1
*odds correct at time of publication
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Team News
India
India are 1-0 down and that’s not something you often get to say when they’re at home in a Test series. Or is it? More on that in a bit.
But yes, they lost by 30 runs after failing to chase 124 over the weekend. In the process, skipper Shubman Gill sustained a neck injury that caused him to retire hurt in the first innings and not bat at all in the second. How priceless he could have been in chasing that low total, I guess we’ll never know, but it was a bad loss to not have the skipper bat, irrespective of his poor run of form.
As things stand, he’s very unlikely to play in the Second Test with Sai Sudharsan coming in for him and Rishabh Pant leading the side, though Nitish Reddy or Devdutt Paddikal are other options to play in Gill’s place.
We’ll have to wait and see Washington Sundar at three again, a surprise move last week, thought to be fair to the all-rounder, he faced more deliveries in the Test than anyone else, in the end scoring 29 and 31, not bad efforts in such a low-scoring game before day three was up.
In addition to the Sundar thing, other strange things were going on, such as India’s obsession with preparing wickets that are minefields. The idea is that presumably their spinners will out-bowl the opposition ones, but if the toss goes against you, you find yourself struggling to chase 100 in the fourth innings.
If they stick with the same strategy and prepare another ‘Bunsen’, then they’ll probably play the same four spinners in Sundar, Ravindra Jadeja, Axar Patel, and Kuldeep Yadav. If not, Reddy could come in for one of them, presumably not Jadeja.
South Africa
Yes, they got the luck of the draw with the toss but they wouldn’t be the first side to win a toss in India, bat first on a tricky wicket and lose the match by a big margin.
Temba Bavuma reminded us of his nuggety worth by being the only player in the whole match to get to 50, and he led the side well.
Simon Harmer was man of the match with eight wickets, while Marco Jansen also played his part. Keshav Maharaj had a quiet game considering the amount of turn on offer.
Wiaan Mulder is a good player, but he looks far too high at three, so Dewald Brevis, unlucky to miss out in the first game, could come in for him.
Kagiso Rabada also missed out, due to injury, and isn’t likely to be fit for this one. They’ve brought in Lungi Ngidi as cover, but he’s unlikely to play with Jansen and Corbin Bosch, both having had decent games.
India vs South Africa Predicted Lineups
- India: Rahul, Jaiswal, Sundar/Reddy, Sudharsan, Pant, Jurel, Jadeja, Axar, Kuldeep, Siraj, Bumrah
- South Africa: Markram, Rickelton, Mulder/Brevis, Bavuma, de Zorzi, Stubbs, Verreynne, Jansen, Bosch, Harmer, Maharaj
Pitch and Conditions
There's never been a Test match played at Guwahati. That’s helpful.
That India racked up 373 against Sri Lanka a couple of years ago in an ODI (Sri Lanka managed 306 in reply) suggests a good wicket but then again, they didn’t play on it for five days, did they?
Domestic results don’t help us much, either. In the last first-class match played here, hosts Assam were out for 200 and 282, but the match before that, Tripura managed 602/7 declared.
But the smart money is on this being a typical Indian wicket: decent for batting early on but deteriorating as the game progresses.
India are 4/11 (73.3%) with South Africa 5/2 (28.6%) and the draw 10/1. The latter is unlikely. Not just because the odds are telling you that anyway but because in a two-match Series when the hosts are 1-0 down, it would be a very unwise move indeed to prepare a wicket that was too good to produce a result and not give India a chance to level the Series.
About a year ago, I watched New Zealand beat India 3-0 in India. The Kiwis were a huge price ahead of the first game, still a very price ahead of the second and from what I remember, they were still 7/2 ahead of the third.
In other words, it’s not out of the question that a very good Test side like South Africa can go toe-to-toe with the India in the latter’s own backyard. After all, not only have they done so in the First Test but in Maharaj and Harmer they have bowlers just as good as what India have, with Aiden Markram and Wiaan Mulder both very capable as support acts. Or at least they can be relied on to take some of the workload off the two frontline spinners.
As for Gill, he’s been badly out of form of late but this is a man averaging 43 in the longest format so hard to argue he won’t be missed, though some may consider Pant to be the better captain.
1pt Back South Africa to win @ 5/2
Ideally, we’d like the toss to go SA’s way, but at 5/2, we can’t be too picky and have it all our own way. Besides, it’s not necessarily a case of ‘bat first, win the match’ and there are times in India when run-scoring is easier on days two and three. South Africa it is.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
0.5pts Back Washington Sundar to be India Top Batsman @ 7/1
Washington Sundar batted at three last time out Twice. The first time round, he got his side’s second-highest score with 29 (beaten by 39), and in the second, he top-scored with 31, both at big prices. They may shuffle the batting order around but they might not and decide that Sundar bats at there again to minimise disruption. He’s 7/1 this time round.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
0.5pts Back Ravindra Jadeja to be India Top Batsman @ 6/1
I’ll split stakes between him and Jadeja at 6/1. Jadeja should come in at 5 or 6 and though, like many, he struggled on a tough pitch last week, he still scored 27 and 18, which were decent contributions in the circumstances. He’s a class act, as we all know, and we can certainly rely on him to dig in if necessary.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Jamie Pacheco Cricket P/L 2025:
- Points Staked: 120.5
- Points Returned: 113.48
- Current P/L: -8.5
*You can check out the Cricket Odds from all of our Cricket Betting markets over on betfred.com
Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...
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