Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur Prediction: Corner-crazy hosts can be backed again at Sky Stadium

Wellington Phoenix and Macarthur FC, sat seventh and eighth, respectively, in the 12-team Australian A-League Men's after four rounds of fixtures, meet at Sky Stadium on Saturday (04:00 GMT, TNT Sports 4), with both sides looking to respond after suffering defeats before the November international break.

Below are my Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

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Team News

Canadian defender Manjrekar James, who started Wellington Phoenix's first two games of the season, is back fit after missing their 1-1 draw at Central Coast Mariners on November 2 and 2-1 home defeat to Auckland six days later due to injury.

The 32-year-old replaces Mac Munro in Giancarlo Italiano's extended squad, which is still missing the injured quintet of Tim Payne (broken collarbone), Paulo Retre (abdominal strain), Hideki Ishige (ACL), Nikola Mileusnic and Nathan Walker (both unspecified).

Football Odds

As for Macarthur, Chris Ikonomidis, Dean Bosnjak and Sebastian Krslovic (all unspecified) are still sidelined, but Bernardo has returned from injury and has been named in the Bulls' extended squad alongside Kristian Popovic.

However, Frans Delli and Will McKay have been omitted by head coach Mile Sterjovski, while 16-year-old Henrique Oliveira, who came off the bench in Macarthur's 2-0 defeat at Sydney FC on November 9, is away on international duty with Australia's U17 side.

Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur Odds

Wellington have won three of the five previous head-to-heads at Sky Stadium (L2), while Macarthur have lost both of their away games in the league this season, yet neither side can be separated in the betting, with both priced at 6/4 for the win on Friday. Those odds offer the Nix and the Bulls an implied probability of 40%, while the draw can be backed at 9/4.

Both teams to score has landed in three of the last four meetings, including both last season, and BTTS-Yes is available at 4/7 this weekend, with BTTS-No at 5/4.

Player to Receive a Card - Alex Rufer (WEL) @ 13/5

This price looks rather generous for a player who has received 44 yellow cards and three reds in the competition.

Eight of Alex Rufer's yellows and one of his reds came in 26 appearances for the Nix during the 2023/24 campaign, and in just 19 matches last season, he was cautioned seven times.

Today's Football Fixtures

The 29-year-old hasn't been booked in any of his four league outings this term, but he has committed three fouls, one in the opening weekend draw at Perth Glory (2-2), and a couple in his side's 2-1 home victory over Brisbane Roar in gameweek two.

Rufer was ill for the last head-to-head between the Nix and the Bulls, but he managed to avoid a booking in last December's 1-1 draw at Sky Stadium.

Still, he has a poor disciplinary record in this fixture, picking up six yellows and one red in 10 appearances against Macarthur. Only against Melbourne Victory (seven yellows, one red), who he has played 11 more times, has the New Zealand international been shown more cards.

A first booking of the season is surely around the corner for Rufer, and so I think it's worth jumping on before his price lowers as the season progresses.

It should be noted, too, that Macarthur midfielders Luke Brattan and Liam Rose are averaging two fouls and one foul won per game, respectively, in the ALM this term.

Most Corners - Wellington Phoenix @ 5/4

After four rounds of fixtures, only Adelaide United (seven) are averaging more corners taken per game than the Nix (6.5), whose home average per game (8.5) is the highest in the league.

Granted, their numbers are inflated by the 13 they earned in their New Zealand derby defeat to Auckland earlier this month, when the Black Knights were reduced to 10 men in the 49th minute, and nine half an hour later.

Still, Auckland didn't win a single corner in that 2-1 victory for Steve Corica's side, not even in the 49 minutes that they had the same number of players on the pitch, and it was the third week running that the Nix had won the corner count after taking eight of the 15 in their 1-1 draw at Central Coast Mariners and four of the six in their 2-1 win against Brisbane Roar.

Macarthur, meanwhile, shared six corners with Brisbane Roar in their opening weekend defeat at Suncorp Stadium, before losing the corner count in their 2-1 victory over Adelaide United (5-8) and 1-1 draw with Western Sydney Wanderers (2-8), before earning two more than Sydney FC's four in a 2-0 defeat at Allianz Stadium last time out.

Only Auckland (3.25) and Perth Glory (3.75) are averaging fewer corners per game this season than Macarthur (four), whose average conceded per game (5.75) ranks the Bulls fourth.

Nick Ware P/L 25/26 ALM Season

 P/L: +40.8