Australia vs England Prediction: Root to go big for England in First Ashes Test

Jamie Pacheco previews the much-awaited First Test between Australia and England, which will be played at the Optus Stadium in Perth on Friday. The match will start at 02:20 and be broadcast live on TNT Sports in the UK.

Jamie is leaving the match winner market well alone for the first one, with his attention drawn to two Price Boosts involving star batsmen. Let's check out his Australia vs England Predictions for the First Ashes Test in Perth...

*You can check out the Cricket Odds from all of our Cricket Betting markets over on betfred.com

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Team News:

Australia

As highlighted in the Ashes preview with my three best bets for the Series, Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood have been ruled out of the First Test. We'll have to wait and see if they're back for the Second Test and if so, whether they're at 100%. But that's to worry about another day.  

In any case, they can thank their lucky stars that in Scott Boland they have world cricket's greatest 'super sub'. Not in the sense that a well-known bookmaker talks about super subs in endless TV adverts featuring Peter Crouch, but rather in the sense that he's both the best and unluckiest player to not regularly feature for his national team.

His average is the best in Test cricket since 1914 and according to a detailed study by those boffins at CricViz, he's the most accurate (the percentage of balls delivered on a good line and length, minimum 200 overs) Test bowler since tracking data began in 2007.  Which probably explains why he has the record he does. So he's in.  

He's likely to be joined by Brendan Doggett, who would be making his Test (and international) debut if he plays. But this is a 31-year-old with 50 first-class matches and 190 scalps, so not a short of experience. Michael Neser, who has played two Tests and is a far better batsman, is the alternative.  

Usman Khawaja is likely to be joined at the top of the order by another debutant in Jake Weatherald, one not short of Sheffield Shield experience himself. Then it will be a strong middle-order with Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith and Travis Head, while Cameron Green (let's see how much he can bowl) is highly likely to be picked ahead of the reliable all-rounder Beau Webster at six. Alex Carey, an excellent batsman in addition to being a steady keeper, will bat at seven.   

Ashes warriors Nathan Lyon and Mitchell Starc complete the XI.

England  

England have already picked their squad of 12 for the First Test, which means that there's only really one dilemma: an all-out pace attack featuring Brydon Carse and with Joe Root the only spin option, or with Shoaib Bashir in it as a specialist spinner with Carse missing out. It's not as straightforward a choice in favour of Carse as it seems.

The Perth wicket is, according to the pitch curator, likely to be quick and bouncy, but it's also looking quite dry, which could bring turn into the equation as the match progresses.  

A bigger clue that England may play Bashir is that Nathan Lyon, Australia's premium spinner, is the highest wicket-taker at this ground, albeit from a small sample of just five Tests.   

The rest of the team picks itself. Ben Stokes is looking close to full fitness with the ball so that's a huge bonus for England in terms of balance. Ollie Pope, my pick for England Series top batsman at 8/1, will need to start well as the man under most pressure for his place with Will Jacks and Jacob Bethell waiting in the wings. Mark Wood, the speedster, is fit to play.  

Pitch and conditions. 

A reminder that we're not at the old WACA, famously the quickest wicket in the world, but rather at the Optus Stadium, also in Perth.  

There have only been five matches here, the first in 2018, with Australia winning the first four but losing against India last year. The Aussies were all out for just 104 and 238 after India declared their second innings on 487/6.  

It's not an easy wicket to work out. Six times in 20 innings, teams were out for less than 200, but then again, Australia declared just short of 600 against the Windies, and India didn't bother getting to 500, declaring just before the landmark.  

Further proof that this is a tricky wicket to call is that both paceman Starc and spinner Lyon have picked up man of the match awards in those four Aussie wins here; so did Labuschagne and Mitch Marsh, who isn't playing.  

A little rain is forecast over the five days, but not enough to think that it will take large chunks out of the game.  

Match Winner odds 

Australia are 8/11, which is 57.9%. England are 5/3, or 44.4% while the draw is 10/1, proof that rain is unlikely to see us lose too many overs. 

I'll cut to the chase pretty quickly. The odds look about right. Australia are weaker for the loss of two of their star fast bowlers, but England only have five players who have featured in Australia in Tests before, and as we know, their sole preparation was a warm-up match against the Lions.  

There are loads of uncertainties at play here, so we won't play. There's no need to play a market we're unsure about just because it's the main one.  

*For all the latest and live Australia vs England First Ashes Test Odds then head over to betfred.com 

Top Bat/Bowler markets  

Not only do the vast majority of prices on the top bat and bowler markets look about right but there's also nothing wrong with biding your time and seeing how everyone is looking before diving in.  

So instead, we'll focus on the individual achievements of players rather than looking at who can beat whom, especially when they're Price Boosts.   

Australia vs England Prediction 1 - Joe Root to score 100+ runs in the match  

A lot has been made of Root's failure to score a century in Australia in Tests. What's the big deal? On three occasions, he passed 85, so is it the end of the world that he didn't quite get to raise his bat? Not for me.  

His record against Australia is excellent in England and quite frankly, isn't bad at all in Australia either; it's worth remembering that he has nine fifties over in OZ.  

He's been the best Test batsman in the world for the past two or three years now and though we don't know exactly what sort of wicket is going to be prepared here, we know he's probably the best batsman on the field across both teams in terms of dealing with it.  

So we're happy to take the boosted 2/1 that he scores 100+ runs in the match; the good thing is that we don't need him to get a century for our bet to win.  

Australia vs England Prediction 2 - Marnus Labuschagne to score a century in the match 

And if Root has never scored a Test century in Australia, Labuschagne definitely has. Nine to be precise, out of the 11 he's notched.   

More to the point, this is a man in rare form. Here are his last 10 scores in the Sheffield Shield, arguably the toughest standard of cricket outside the international game: 130, 2, 160, 105, 198, 18, 4, 101, 50 and 11. So five centuries out of 10 knocks and a further half-century.  Now back at his preferred number three spot, he's certainly not going to run out of partners in trying to get to 100. 

In 2019, he scored 143 here at the Optus Stadium against a strong New Zealand bowling line-up in the first innings, and 50 in the second. In 2002, against the Windies, he hit 204, followed by 104 not out in the second innings.  

Let's see if he can do it all over again.  

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