Italy vs Norway Prediction: 4/1 Haaland to inflict inevitable Italian pain

If Italy are to qualify automatically for the 2026 World Cup, they will need to beat Norway by nine goals on Sunday when the pair meet at San Siro in Milan in the final Group I qualifier (20:45 local, 19:45 GMT, live on Prime Video).

The visitors have a 100% record from their seven games so far, and their 3-0 win over the Azzurri in Oslo means they’ll arrive in Lombardy with confidence they can beat Gennaro Gattuso’s side again. My Italy vs Norway predictions are below, along with full team news and Betfred’s latest match odds.

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Team News

Don't expect to see any of Andrea Cambiaso, Sandro Tonali or Davide Frattesi in the Italy lineup. With all three sitting one yellow card short of a suspension, coach Gattuso won't risk them missing the semi-final of the play-off which inevitably awaits them as group runners-up.

Nicolo Barella is back available after being banned for the 2-0 win in Moldova on Thursday, while Gianluigi Donnarumma and Mateo Retegui could be among a huge number of more familiar starters being recalled after missing the trip to Chisinau.

For Norway, coach Stale Solbakken is far less likely to shuffle his pack with his nation playing it straight ahead of a probable first qualification for the World Cup finals in 28 years.

That means Erling Haaland and Alexander Sorloth, who each bagged a brace in the 4-1 victory over Estonia on Thursday, should be partnered up front once more.

Italy vs Norway Odds

Heading into Thursday’s games, Italy were 4/5 to win this one and Norway 10/3. But the nature of their successes – with the Scandinavians hammering Estonia 4-1 and the Azzurri taking 88 minutes to net against Moldova – has seen the odds altered somewhat.

You can now get 1/1 about the home side taking three points, while Norway are 5/2 to complete a perfect set of qualifying victories.

The draw is 13/5, while Haaland and Retegui are the 4/1 joint-favourites to net the first goal of the game.

Norway to win @ 5/2

It was the 3-0 loss to Norway in Oslo which persuaded the FIGC to hand Luciano Spalletti his papers and bring in Gattuso, and the five wins which have followed say much about the impact ‘Ringhio’ has had.

But I’ve seen teams coached by the notorious former midfielder before, and I can’t say I’m convinced that this is a permanent sea change for Italy and Gattuso.

Their form under him so far has been somewhat erratic, with the 5-4 win in Israel being some measure of encapsulation of what he can bring at both ends of the field.

On Thursday his much-changed side dominated but took until the very late knockings to put away a Moldova side which just two months ago was hammered 11-1 (ELEVEN-ONE) by Norway.

And the Norwegians turn up at the Giuseppe Meazza on Sunday in an almost-perfect position. They are basically through, yet know they have to turn up with a measure of professionalism.

They are also riding high with belief following their 33 goals in seven games, and in Haaland have the most deadly striker in the business.

In almost no other setting would you have such a convincing group winner being offered at 5/2 to win a match, and it’s a bet well worth taking.

Today's Football Fixtures

Erling Haaland first goalscorer @ 4/1

Do you really need an explanation? He has 53 goals in 47 internationals, scored two goals on Thursday in the win over Estonia, has hit 19 in 15 for Manchester City this season.

And the master marksman now comes up against a backline which shipped four to Israel on the same night he was bagging five of the 11 his side put past Moldova.

His anytime goal price is naturally skinny at 23/20, so I’m going for the value bet in picking him to get the scoring underway at 4/1 and an implied probability of 20%. Seems punter-friendly to me.