Australia vs India Prediction: Back Local lad Ellis to help Aussies to win

Jamie Pacheco previews the third T20I of the Series between Australia and India, which will be played at Hobart on Sunday. The match will start at 08:15 and be broadcast live on TNT Sports.  

Jamie sees no reason why Australia and India are the same price here and is siding with the hosts, while Nathan Ellis should do well on his BBL home ground at Hobart.  We go through his match preview and Australia vs India Predictions here on Betfred Insights...

*You can check out the Cricket Odds from all of our Cricket Betting markets over on betfred.com

Match Preview:

Australia  

The rain didn't have the effect on the match we thought it would and instead it was Josh Hazlewood who gave India their biggest headache of the evening, his 3/13 off four rightly seeing him awarded with the Player of the Match award, a reminder that for all the talk of specialists for a particular format, an excellent bowler is an excellent bowler, whatever the format.  

Chasing just 126 for the win, our man Mitch Marsh top-scored with 46 off 26 to give us a handy 3/1 winner, with 20s from Travis Head and Josh Inglis also helping their cause, getting home with almost seven overs to spare.  

Adam Zampa may not be available here again, but Glenn Maxwell might, who has just announced his retirement from ODIs and seems to have recovered from injury. There's no Hazlewood though as he starts his Ashes preparations.  

India 

A poor performance from India with the bat cost them, with only Abishek Sharma getting going with 68 off 37. Harshit Rana, who we had for India top bowler, ended up shining with the bat, scoring 33 off 35 after a promotion to number seven.  

At least they took six wickets to make the chase somewhat interesting, as they once again played three spinners. In Australia, that's not always going to be the smart choice. That could mean one of Kuldeep or Chakravarthy making way for Ntish Kumar Reddy in this one, which would also strengthen their batting.  

India have so far lost three of the four completed matches on this Tour, a reminder that knowledge of home conditions continues to be a huge factor.

Pitch and conditions

Australia are played five, won five, here at Hobart.  

They played here twice last year beating both the West Indies and Pakistan. 

They bowled Pakistan out for just 117 and chased that with ease but a few months earlier set the Windies 214 to win, which they almost chased.  

Then back in 2018 Australia chased England's 156 quite comfortably. So very different first innings scores but we know from the Big Bash that this tends to be one of the better wickets so 175 or so first up would be seen as par.  

The forecast is much better for Sunday than it was for Friday's match but then again, it wasn't a problem on Friday anyway; but we really should get a completed game in here.  

Match Winner Odds

The odds-compilers are making this a choice affair, with both teams on offer at 10/11, which is an implied probability of 52.4%. But shouldn't Australia be favourites?  

After all, they've played the better cricket so far this Tour and have won 3/4 of the completed matches, including Friday's game.  

They also have that perfect record at Hobart, a venue that India have never even played at.  

Of course, the absence of Hazlewood is a minus, but others can come in and fill that role, and the batting looks strong. The inclusion of Maxwell in the XI, a three-dimensional player, would also give them more options.  The hosts are worth a bet.  

*For all the latest and live Australia vs India 3rd IT20 Odds then head over to betfred.com 

Australia Top Batsman  

It's not a bad thing to know the rules as regards top batter/top wicket-taker markets. So, here's a reminder:  

"In limited overs cricket matches affected by weather, a minimum number of overs (as specified below) must be bowled, unless the team is all out or has won the match or the Top Batter/Wicket Taker bet has been unconditionally determined, otherwise all Top Batsman/Wicket Taker bets will be deemed void." 

50-over ODI/Domestic matches – 20 overs 

20-over International/Domestic matches – 6 overs 

100-ball matches – 30 balls 

So, 6 overs or more and the bet stands, less than 6 and it doesn't. Simple.  

Which brings us to Mitch Marsh, in the form of his life with scores of 85 not out, 9, and 103 not out from his last three T20Is, and becoming increasingly accustomed to his role as an opener rather than at 3-5.  

Given the possibility of a reduction in overs where it's a 10-over-a-side game, and you can see the added importance of him being an opener, the loss of form of fellow opener Travis Head is also not a factor to be dismissed.  

Australia Top Bowler   

Nathan Ellis has pretty good figures in T20 cricket overall with 170 matches producing 206 wickets, impressive numbers. His numbers for Australia are good too, with 44 in 29 matches. 

He'll be playing at his Big Bash home ground here in Hobart, so he should know the conditions well. Here, he's taken 41 wickets in 30 games, again strong figures and was good fir two wickets at the MCG on Friday.    

Crucially, he may not have a huge amount to beat with no Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and by all accounts, Zampa, either.  

So yes, he's the favourite at 3/1, but for good reasons.  

Jamie Pacheco Cricket P/L 2025: 

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