Football Bet of the Day: Big away win in France?

We’ve got plenty of action on Wednesday as the Carabao Cup hots up, but there’s also plenty of European action that has caught my eye.

In search of some big value for Wednesday’s Football Bet of the Day, I’m heading to France and Ligue 1. 

Metz vs Lens Odds

I always like to look at the form book when picking out a Football Bet of the Day, both good and bad, and that’s why Metz have caught my eye on Wednesday night. They’ve been nothing short of abysmal so far this season and it’s a really concerning time for the Maroons. 

They are still searching for their first win of the Ligue 1 season, sit bottom of the table and their current record reads W0, D2, L7. Stephane Le Mignan’s outfit have conceded the highest number of goals in the league this term (26) and scored the fewest (6), so by all measures, they are France’s worst top-flight team. 

It’s not as if Metz are unlucky either. They sit rock-bottom of the xG table too, having created just 0.86 xG per 90, conceding 1.84. Both of those total rank them 18th out of 18, so there’s very little light at the end of the tunnel. 

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In fact… they might even be getting worse! Their last three outings have seen them concede 13 goals, as they’ve lost 6-1 to Lille, 4-0 to Toulouse and 3-0 to Marseille. Ouch. Now seven points adrift of safety, relegation already looks to be a formality. 

They perhaps will fancy their chances against Lens given they beat them twice last term, but they were both very different outfits in 2024/25. Now, Lens look to be one of the best teams in Ligue 1 as they sit second, just one point behind PSG, with six wins and one draw on the board from their nine games. 

Will Still left the club for Southampton over the summer, but new manager Pierre Sage has been a wonderful replacement, and looks set to take them to new heights. They’ve won their last three games on the bounce and look to be in fine fettle, as they came from one goal down against Marseille to secure a 2-1 win in their last outing. 

Given Marseille hammered Metz, you can see where I’m heading with this prediction. The away side should be in for a big win away from home, especially when you consider that Metz haven’t managed to score a second-half goal this term, which could suggest a serious issue with the players’ fitness levels. 

Lens are unbeaten in their last five in all competitions, and they have only lost once in their last six away Ligue 1 games, away at PSG. Sage’s team are incredibly attacking and aggressive - they’ve won the most penalties in the division this season and had a red card in each of their last two away games, but this high-risk football should pay dividends against lowly Metz. 

The -2 handicap price of 10/3 massively appeals as we back the away side to keep up their good form. 

Offers

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