Atalanta vs AC Milan Prediction: 12/5 tip headlines a slow burner in Bergamo

It’s fair to say AC Milan have a point to prove on Tuesday when they face the short trip to Bergamo’s New Balance Arena to face Atalanta in Serie A (20:45 local, 19:45 GMT, live on Betfred.com and TNT Sports 1).

The Rossoneri meekly gave up their position at the top of the table in drawing 2-2 with bottom-placed Pisa on Saturday, and a win is needed to get back on track. My Atalanta vs AC Milan predictions follow, along with full team news and match odds from Betfred.

Team News

Atalanta are missing Sead Kolasinac, Mitchel Bakker and Giorgio Scalvini as they seek to buck a run of four straight draws.

They drew 1-1 with Cremonese on Saturday with Ademola Lookman, Nikola Krstovic and Charles De Ketelaere leading their line, but the former pair are likely to be switched out by Ivan Juric to make way for Kamaldeen Sulemana and Mario Pasalic.

Milan should welcome back Fikayo Tomori in their back three. Meanwhile Christopher Nkunku is in line to start in place of Santi Gimenez, who struggled against Pisa.

Max Allegri is unable to call upon injury victims Pervis Estupinan, Christian Pulisic, Adrien Rabiot, Ardon Jashari and Cheveyo Balentien.

Atalanta vs AC Milan Odds

This one is a very, very tight call for the oddsmakers. Atalanta are very slight favourites with Betfred at 8/5, which implies a 38.5% probability.

Milan are a 13/8 chance, at an implied 38.1%, while the draw is a 12/5 bet.

It’s even tight on the first goalscorer market, with Atalanta’s Nikola Krstovic and the visitors’ Santi Gimenez tied at 9/2 for the opener.

Today's Football Fixtures

Draw @ 12/5

There’s far too little in this one to call it either way, and looking at the record of Atalanta in particular you have to believe there will be nothing in it.

Juric’s troops have been in every single game this season but have found it hard to put teams away, and there could be an element of that in this match too.

Milan are obviously the higher-calibre outfit, but they’re still finding their way back at the top end of the league under returning coach Allegri. The 2-2 home draw with Pisa underlined their lack of readiness to go on a long run.

And I think they’ll take a draw in Bergamo as a positive step as they look to gain a foothold in the Champions League positions.

Football Odds

First Half Correct Score: 0-0 @ 15/8

Given how tight this one should be, and looking at both teams’ records with scoreless first halves this term, I think 15/8 is a very punter-friendly price for a 0-0 half-time score.

These two have seven blanks between them across opening halves, and neither look particularly likely to burst out of the blocks on Tuesday.

So I’m happy to go with this one and back a slow burner that comes to life in the second half. It’s classic midweek fare, in many ways.

The implied probability of 34.8% is way below the 43.8% actuality of these sides’ records.

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