Japan vs Brazil Prediction: Can Carlo inspire another win?

We’ve got a cracking international friendly on our hands on Tuesday morning as Japan host Brazil (11:30 BST) at the Ajinomoto Stadium in Chofu. Japan were the first team to book their place at the 2026 World Cup, while Brazil also came through their Conmebol qualifying, eventually finishing fifth out of 12. 

Below you can find my Japan vs Brazil predictions featuring team news and match odds.

Team News

Japan drew 2-2 with Paraguay on Friday and manager Hajime Moriyasu is likely to make a few changes as he tries to finalise his World Cup squad. QPR winger Koki Saito should start in the attacking third having come off the bench in the draw, along with Crystal Palace midfielder Daichi Kamada.

Celtic’s Daizen Maeda could come into the attack to replace Takumi Minamino, while we could also see starts for Daiki Hashioka in defence, Joel Chima Fujita in midfield and Ayase Ueda up top.

World Cup Odds

For Carlo Ancelotti, he will be desperate to build up some momentum. Estevao and Rodrygo both scored braces in a 5-0 win over South Korea, but the gaffer is likely to rotate heavily with Joelinton, Gabriel Martinelli and Luiz Henrique all unused substitutes on Friday. 

Richarlison will probably come in to lead the line with Nottingham Forest’s Igor Jesus also an option. Lucas Paqueta is also expected to start in midfield having come off the bench in that big win. 

Japan vs Brazil Odds

Japan are priced at 11/2 to win this game, with Brazil priced at 1/2. That gives the away side an implied win probability of 67%, while a draw can be backed at 7/2.

Over 1.5 goals is 2/11, BTTS is 4/6 and Richarlison is the favourite to open the scoring at 4/1.

Brazil win and BTTS @ 7/4 

Now Brazil’s odds have certainly shortened since they thumped South Korea 5-0 and that performance did raise an eyebrow from this writer, given the way Brazil stuttered through qualifying. Ancelotti is obviously one of the best managers of all time and he will be dreaming of winning the World Cup next summer - nothing else is good enough when you are in charge of the five-time winner. 

However, this second friendly in a matter of days is unlikely to see him name such a strong XI for the second match running. It’s a long way to travel and we can expect the big guns such as Vinicius Jr. and now Estevao to be given a break, with half an eye on the next international break in November. However, their squad depth is impressive.

Japan meanwhile will be using this as their main October test, with the 2-2 draw against Paraguay not seeing the best of them. Japan didn’t score in September international break, but were slightly more adventurous last time out, and so I’m going to back them to find the net - however their recent defeat against the USA and the fact they have not won any of their last three leads me to believe Brazil will find another victory on their tour of Asia. 

Today's Football Fixtures

Richarlison to score anytime @ 23/20

Matheus Cunha started up front for Brazil against Korea, but Richarlison still seems to fit the bill as their leading number nine. He has scored three goals for Spurs this season, but has registered 20 goals in 53 apeparances for his country and seems to have the trust of his teammates. 

Usually he is the foil for the wingers to shine, but that international goal record speaks for itself. He scored twice at the Qatar World Cup, and actually hasn’t found the net for his country since then, but Ancelotti looks set to give him another chance on Tuesday. I think there’s certainly value in backing him to end that streak of matches without a goal, against a Japan outfit that have been unable to keep the goals at bay of late. 

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