Estonia vs Italy Prediction: We’re Kean on 11/4 Moise in Tallinn

Italy’s task of avoiding a third successive World Cup qualifying failure depends on them making light work of Estonia in Tallinn on Saturday (21:45 local, 19:45 BST, live on Prime Video).

The Azzurri are playing catch-up after their chastening loss to Norway under Luciano Spalletti and only a big win will do for new boss Gennaro Gattuso. My Estonia vs Italy predictions follow below, along with the latest team news and Betfred’s full match odds.

Team News

Jurgen Henn will revert back to a similar Estonia line-up to the one which lost 5-0 to Italy in their meeting in Bergamo last month.

That means there could be as many as six changes from the side that drew 0-0 with Andorra in an international friendly last time out.

From the XI which stepped out at Gewiss Stadium, Ioan Yakovlev could come in for Vlasiy Sinyavskiy in one of the attacking midfield positions.

Elsewhere, the likes of Mattias Kait and Joseph Saliste will likely return to the starting line-up having come on from the bench in the Andorra draw.

Football Odds

The Azzurri followed up that 5-0 win over Saturday’s opponents in Gattuso’s coaching debut with a frankly bonkers 5-4 victory against Isreal in Debrecen.

‘Ringhio’ could bring Napoli skipper Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Riccardo Calafiori into that suspect back-line, with Leonardo Spinazzola and Giacomo Raspadori also candidates to step into the line-up.

Raspadori has been short of game time since his summer move to Atletico Madrid but has a goal and an assist in two Champions League starts for Los Colchoneros.

Estonia vs Italy Odds

Whatever you do, don’t back Italy on the match result alone. They’re a 1/12 shot, which makes an away win a 92.3% implied probability.

Estonia are a massive 28/1 chance, and you can back the draw at 9/1.

The Azzurri are 15/8 to overcome a three-goal handicap, while five Italians are odds-on to score at any time.

Moise Kean and Mateo Retegui are both 5/2 to score the first goal of the game.

Today's Football Fixtures

Moise Kean to score two or more goals @ 11/4

Fiorentina’s Moise Kean is not in great form. His goal in the 2-1 defeat to Roma last Sunday was his first of the season in his seventh appearance in all competitions.

And yet Italy’s version of Kean could not be in better nick. Three games ago he had five international goals in 20 caps stretched over a seven-year period in which his career had drifted somewhat.

But a brace against Germany in March was followed up in September with a goal against Estonia and two equalisers in the absolutely nuts encounter against Israel.

It is a simple fact that the Viola are not a good side at the moment, and as a result the 25-year-old is getting either poor service or no service at all.

And when he has had chances, he has largely ended up snatching at them for fear of more not coming his way.

The good news for Kean is that he is in an Italy shirt on Saturday, and his opportunities to net should not be infrequent. Gattuso’s gung-ho style has been to his forwards’ liking so far, and that shouldn’t change in Tallinn.

Estonia will want to put a better showing in than they did in Bergamo last month, but they simply don’t have the ability to deal with a red-hot Kean if the supply line is pumping.

That’s why the 11/4 price for the former Everton and Juventus man to score two or more goals looks on the high side to me.

World Cup Odds

Giacomo Raspadori to assist a goal @ 21/10

Raspadori’s transition to Spanish football has not been smooth sailing thus far.

The former Sassuolo and Napoli attacker has struggled to get starts in La Liga, having been handed just one starting shirt by Diego Simeone.

But in the Champions League he has had a greater impact. He started at Anfield against Liverpool and assisted Marcos Llorente’s first goal, then he netted within four minutes as the Rojiblancos beat Frankfurt 5-1.

The fact that he went straight back to the bench for the trip to Celta Vigo which followed and wasn’t called upon in the 1-1 draw says much about his place in the pecking order at the Wanda Metropolitano.

Yet, like Kean, Raspadori has found a sense of release at international level.

He has scored four goals and assisted three more in his last five games in Azzurro, including one of each when coming off the bench against Germany in the Nations League.

Given those numbers, the 9/4 available with Betfred for him to lay on a goal is in the punters’ favour and I’m backing him to be a key supplier in an Italy victory.

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