Newcastle vs Arsenal Stats-Based Bet Builder Tips: Guimaraes to get booked in 9/1 shot

Newcastle United welcome Arsenal to St. James' Park on Sunday (16:30 BST, Sky Sports Main Event) in the Premier League. The Magpies are searching for their second win of the season, while they have only mustered three goals in their opening five league fixtures.

Arsenal head here after salvaging a late draw at home to Manchester City last Sunday. The Gunners have won three games from five in the top flight, scoring 10 goals in the process. Below you will find my Newcastle vs Arsenal Stats-Based Bet Builder Tips, which pay out at 9/1.

Arsenal to win

You may think this is a very bold selection as Arsenal are the visiting side, and they have lost their last three visits to St. James' Park in all competitions, but the Gunners have started the season in much better fashion than Newcastle.

They sit second in the table, having won three of their opening five games, while the Magpies have managed just one league win to date. And when it comes to goals, Arsenal have seven more to their name (10) than their hosts (three).

I've been concerned about Newcastle's early performances as it appears that Alexander Isak has left a bigger hole than we expected. It also doesn't help that his replacement, Yoane Wissa is still a few weeks away from overcoming an injury to make his debut.

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There have been times where they have struggled to create chances and others where they haven't been able to take them, highlighting just how good Isak was in their side.

Arsenal head here not having to worry about a high-profile individual, and I think this can help them record an impressive win on Tyneside. They fought hard to earn a draw against City last week and now they have the chance to put another three points on the board against a side who have been struggling for goals.

Arsenal have conceded just two goals in the top flight in 2025/26, so this won't help matters for the Magpies.

Both teams to score - No

This leads me nicely on to my second leg, which is both teams to score - no. This has been a winning selection in six of Arsenal's seven fixtures in all competitions this term, and they have recorded clean sheets in five of them - three of which have come on their travels.

Newcastle have scored just three goals in the Premier League so far and so this market has been a winning selection in four of their five league appearances this term.

Their attacking players are going to find it tough facing the side with the joint-best defensive record in the division, and who are a very tough side to break down.

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Riccardo Calalfiori 1+ shots

Arsenal's Riccardo Calafiori has been playing an integral role for the Gunners this season and has helped them keep five clean sheets in all competitions. But this is not his only value to the squad.

He may naturally be a central defender but the Italian has made the left-back spot his own and he is not afraid to venture forward and help his side in attack. He has recorded 10 shots in the Premier League this term across five games - so he is averaging 2.35 per 90 minutes.

Calafiori poses a threat from set-pieces mainly but sometimes he can get into decent positions in open play. I think he's worth backing registering another shot at Newcastle on Sunday.

Newcastle vs Arsenal Odds

Bruno Guimaraes to be carded

This Bet Builder is wrapped up with a booking and I think Newcastle's combative midfielder Bruno Guimaraes is one of the standout candidates to go into the book. The Brazilian's compatriot Joelinton also crossed my mind but it is Guimaraes who I think will get into some trouble on Sunday.

This is because his two Premier League bookings to date in 2025/26 have both come on home soil - against Liverpool and more recently Wolverhampton Wanderers. The midfielder has been penalised in the top flight on 11 occasions in the first five matches of the campaign, so he is averaging 2.75 fouls per game.

Against an Arsenal side that are very good at frustrating their opponents, they could draw Guimaraes in to make some reckless challenges that end up with him collecting his third booking of the season.

It's also worth noting that Guimaraes has been carded three times in eight career appearances against the Gunners.

Today's Football Fixtures

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Sunday: We will be Top Price on Arsenal to beat Newcastle with selected bookmakers using Oddschecker for the comparison. (Available from 09:30 Sunday)

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