AC Milan vs Napoli Prediction: 18/1 McTominay tip for San Siro showdown

One of the massive attractions of any Serie A season takes place on Sunday as AC Milan welcome reigning champions Napoli to San Siro (21:00 local, 20:00 BST, live on Betfred.com and TNT Sports 1).

The Rossoneri’s form has picked up since their opening 2-1 loss to Cremonese, with four straight wins in all competitions, but the Partenopei provide their biggest test yet. Read on for my AC Milan vs Napoli predictions, complete with full team news and Betfred’s latest match odds.

Team News

Milan are set to bring back Luka Modric and Christian Pulisic after the pair were rested for the 3-0 Coppa Italia win over Lecce at the Meazza on Tuesday.

The American came off the bench and added the third goal within three minutes of his introduction. He should be given the nod ahead of fellow goalscorer Christopher Nkunku.

Modric will replace Samuele Ricci at the base of the midfield in Massimiliano Allegri’s 3-5-2 formation, with Matteo Gabbia likely to step in for Koni De Winter at the back.

Mike Maignan makes his first Serie A appearance since limping out of the win against Bologna after returning to the side for Tuesday’s cup match.

There’s still no Rafael Leao or Ardon Jashari for the Rossoneri.

Napoli boss Antonio Conte is forced into at least one change, with Alessandro Buongiorno missing due to a muscle injury suffered in his left thigh during the 3-2 win over Pisa on Monday.

Juan Jesus should be the one called upon to come in at centre-back in Buongiorno’s place.

Romelu Lukaku is still missing with a thigh problem which is serious enough for him to have been excluded from the Azzurri’s Champions League squad list for the league-phase fixtures.

Nikita Contini and Pasquale Mazzocchi are out injured, while Conte’s biggest decision may come in having to choose between Billy Gilmour and Stanislav Lobotka in the middle of the park.

The Scot came into the starting lineup against Pisa and scored his first Napoli goal.

AC Milan vs Napoli Odds

The oddsmakers at Betfred seem uncertain on which way to go here, with Milan favoured but still available at 7/5 for the home win. That implies a 41.7% probability.

Napoli are a 21/10 shot (32.3%) to take the three points, while the draw is available at 11/5.

Milan’s Santiago Gimenez is the 9/2 favourite to net the first goal, with teammate Pulisic and Napoli’s Lorenzo Lucca both 5/1. Rasmus Hojland is 6/1 to add to his one goal in two starts for the champions with an opening strike at San Siro.

Today's Football Fixtures

Napoli to win @ 21/10

While Milan have looked fairly faultless in the wins at Lecce and Udinese, and scored five goals in the process, their home performances have been far less convincing.

They hammered Cremonese but got picked off on the break to lose 2-1, and then when beating Bologna they took a long time to put their opponents to bed.

Tuesday’s 3-0 victory over Lecce in the cup will likely have little bearing on this fixture, with Napoli by far the best team the Rossoneri have faced to date.

The champs were under-par themselves on Monday in just about holding off Pisa 3-2. It took an Alex Meret save deep in stoppage time to secure the three points against a team who have otherwise found goals hard to come by.

But on the road Conte has managed to get clinical displays out of his side. They were dominant against Sassuolo and had the match won early, while at Fiorentina they rose to the occasion to win 3-1 with a bit to spare.

So I really fancy them to overcome a Milan side who have looked OK of late, but who still appear short of the confidence and quality to break down well-run opponents.

The 21/10 are generous to say the least given that this is a 100% defending-champion side we’re talking about.

Serie A Odds

Bet Builder: 2-1 Napoli and Scott McTominay to score anytime @ 18/1

Here’s an ambitious one, but with good reason.

McTominay could not have adapted better to life in Serie A. Those 12 goals and big performances last season helped to make him the division’s Player of the Year at his first attempt, and he has a style of play which is made for nights like Sunday.

The former Manchester United midfielder has revelled in playing with greater freedom, largely coming in from that left channel, and I really fancy him to exploit Milan at San Siro.

To add to that, I have a real feeling for a 2-1 Napoli win. They were 2-0 victors in this game last season, and while Milan look like a growing side who could have a bit of a say, the champions have to be favoured to get the job done.

Thirteen of Napoli’s 24 wins in Serie A last term came by the odd goal, and I think that will be repeated here.

The odds of 18/1 imply a 5.3% chance, which I fancy to be on the low side.