Broncos vs Panthers Prediction: 9/4 Nathan to lead the champions back to the GF

Sunday’s second NRL Preliminary Final sees Penrith Panthers’ improbable task of reaching the Grand Final from seventh face its biggest hurdle yet in the form of the Brisbane Broncos at Suncorp Stadium (16:05 local, 07:05 BST, live on Sky Sports +HD and Sky Sports Mix).

The winners will take on the Melbourne Storm in next Sunday’s GF, with the Panthers aiming for a fifth straight title. Will my Broncos vs Panthers predictions signal the end of Penrith’s dominance? Find out below that and the latest team news and Betfred’s match odds below.

Broncos vs Panthers Odds

It’s the four-time back-to-back champs who are favoured for a third straight away win in the play-offs, with Betfred pricing them at 4/6 for the victory in 80 minutes.

The home side are 5/4, which implies a 44.4% probability of the Broncos making it to the big dance. You can get 18/1 for a draw in normal time.

Brian To’o and Paul Alamoti are heavily backed for the first try, with both priced at 7/1. Josiah Karapani is 8/1 and Casey McLean 10/11.

Team News

Adam Reynolds and Ezra Mam make long-awaited returns after both pulling a hamstring within seconds of each other in the loss to Melbourne Storm in round 23.

Reynolds starts, while Mam is set to be among the substitutes. Selwyn Cobbo, whose own hamstring injury has kept him out for the same period of time, is also back in contention and named on the reserve list.

Ben Hunt is in the halves, with Cory Paix starting at nine in the absence of Billy Walters.

Patrick Carrigan is suspended, so in comes Tyson Smoothy at loose forward.

Ivan Cleary will put out the same 17 which blasted the Canterbury Bulldogs out of the finals last Sunday.

Mitch Kenny came through his first game back with flying colours, so starts once more, while Casey McLean and Liam Martin recovered quickly from knocks at the Accor Stadium.

Rugby League Odds

Handicap 3-way: Panthers -4 @ 11/10

Based on their finals form over the past five years, I just can’t back against the Panthers.

It is hard to believe this side was at the bottom of the ladder on May 31 this year, not just because they were the four-time defending champions but also in light of the turnaround since that point.

They’ve won 12 of 15 since then, with their only losses coming in a three-game streak between rounds 24 to 26 at a time when their place in the finals had already been secured to all intents and purposes.

That horrific start to the campaign now feels as though it happened 10 years ago, and their first-half showing in last week’s battering of the Bulldogs – taking a 36-8 lead into the break – proved that they can still be as dominant as they have been in the previous four years.

To that end, I’m happy to get on Penrith against a four-point handicap at 11/10 with its implied 47.6% probability.

Nathan Cleary anytime tryscorer @ 9/4

There is so much strike in this Panthers side that they can take teams apart in countless different ways.

But in Cleary they have the best player in the country, and a true big-game talent.

His winning try in the 2023 Grand Final against these Broncos was just one exhibition of his brilliance when it matters at this time of year, and I think he’s primed for that kind of impact once more.

Just as I refuse to back against the Panthers continuing their dominance until it’s actually happened, there’s no way I don’t believe Cleary’s fingerprints will be all over this game.

At 9/4, it’s a 30.8% implied probability that he scores. But under the fiercest of spotlights, that’s when Nathan looks better than ever.

You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.