Storm vs Sharks Prediction: Back Katoa and Melbourne to Storm to the big dance

The first of this year’s NRL Grand Finalists will be confirmed on Friday when the Melbourne Storm and Cronulla Sharks meet in the opening Preliminary Final at AAMI Park (19:50 local, 10:50 BST, live on Sky Sports +HD and Sky Sports Mix).

It’s a match-up of second versus fifth in a play-off series which has seen rankings count for little thus far. My Storm vs Sharks predictions follow, complete with the latest team news and Betfred’s match odds.

Storm vs Sharks Odds

Melbourne are the big favourites here as they look to book a place in an 11th Grand Final in 23 years under Craig Bellamy. They’re priced by Betfred at 4/11, which implies a 73.3% probability.

The Sharks are 23/10 for another upset victory in 90 minutes after hammering the Minor Premiers, the Canberra Raiders, at GIO last week.

Xavier Coates is well backed to score the first try of the contest. He’s 6/1, with Will Warbrick at 8/1 and the Sharks’ Ronaldo Mulitalo a 9/1 shot alongside Storm full-back Ryan Papenhuyzen.

Team News

Bellamy has been boosted by some key returns ahead of Friday’s prelim.

Papenhuyzen is back after sitting out the Week One win over the Canterbury Bulldogs with concussion, while Jahrome Hughes is fit again after fracturing his forearm and Shawn Blore has overcome a fractured larynx.

Nick Meaney is switched to the centres to give way for Papenhuyzen, and Jonah Pezet drops out for Hughes to step in.

Grant Anderson is 18th player, while Blore is included among the interchange options.

The Sharks make one change, with Craig Fitzgibbon replacing Tom Hazelton with Oregon Kaufusi. Hazelton, who only recently returned, suffered a head knock against the Raiders.

Dan Atkinson is lined up to be the 18th player, with Hohepa Puru also a reserve option.

Rugby League Odds

Storm by 1-12 points @ 19/10

Immediately, 19/10 feels to me to be a bit big for the Storm to win by a score or two. That’s a 34.5% implied probability.

The feeling seems to be that Melbourne will have far too much for the Sharks and will therefore win by more than 12.

But this is the finals, and Cronulla will not be bowed by any task having gone to the capital last week and eliminated the best team in Australia in 2025.

Nicho Hynes and Teig Wilton were stand-outs in Canberra, and the half-back in particular could be on for another big performance at AAMI Park.

That said, I think the Storm make it to the big dance once more. I just reckon the Sharks will give them a closer run than the odds are suggesting, and so that 1-12 bracket becomes a big attraction.

Eliesa Katoa anytime tryscorer @ 5/4

Followers of this column will have been happy with our Storm vs Bulldogs predictions a fortnight ago, with the second of that winning one-two being the tip for Eliesa Katoa to score at any time.

The Tongan back-rower crossed within four minutes on that occasion, and we can again get 5/4 about him scoring in regular time in the Preliminary Final.

Given the way the Storm attack, and Katoa’s return of 13 tries in 24 games this year, I definitely make that a punter-friendly price.

You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.