England vs South Africa Prediction: Side with Jofra’s jaffers at 5/2

Jamie Pacheco previews the third and final IT20 between England and South Africa at Trent Bridge, start time 14:30, live on Sky Sports Main Event, as England look to gain revenge for that ODI Series loss, with the score currently at 1-1.  

There’s rain forecast for Old Trafford but if they get out on the field, there’s a solid 5/2 shot worth backing in the top England bowler market as he takes us through his England vs South Africa Predictions...

*You can check out the Cricket Odds from all of our Cricket Betting markets over on betfred.com

England 

Personally, I'm not a fan of a game of cricket where one team can get to 302 off 20 overs. Either the pitch was too good, or the boundaries were too small because that's not a normal score to put on the board. Good on Phil Salt with his record-breaking exploits (141 off 60) and Jos Buttler was no slouch either with 83 off 30, but I don't see much fun in a match that's done and dusted by the halfway mark.   

Jacob Bethell seems to have cemented his place at three, at least until the likes of Jamie Smith and Ben Duckett return while Will Jacks is making the number seven spot his own, not always with great success, though.  

Jofra Archer continues to be in rare form with another three wickets last time out. That's now 11 across his last three matches - two ODIS and a T20I – and he should play here again with England wanting to win this Series after the disappointment of that ODI Series loss.  

South Africa  

I'm not going to be too critical of South Africa's huge loss last time out even though it was the second massive hammering they got in the space of a week, after the same happened in the final ODI.  

England batted first on a belter of a wicket, the two openers were middling everything, and they got to a massive total. In reply, South Africa, well…they had no reply, to either the scoreboard pressure, or the bowling of Archer.  

In the end it was left to the unlikely figure of Bjorne Fortuin to hit a good 32 off 16 after Aiden Markram got them off to a promising start with 41 off 20.  

Kagiso Rabada had a shocking return, conceding 70, but the rest weren't much better.    

Pitch and conditions 

We're at Trent Bridge for this one and rain is very much on the cards.

There's a 90% chance of it for the three and a half hours scheduled for the game to be played so a reduction in overs is very likely. You'd think that would play into the hands of the big-hitting English batters, but then again, the Saffers were the ones who adapted slightly better to conditions in the farcical first match of this Series where rain threatened to have the game rained off entirely.   

Either way, it's never too easy to predict what a par score might be because we don't have a clue how many overs will be played in the first innings if that rain comes, as predicted.  

Match Winner odds 

England have been cut to 8/15 after that near-flawless performance on Friday, which is implied probability of 65.2%. South Africa, who look like they've had enough of white ball cricket given they were in Australia for back-to-back Series before coming to England, are 6/4, which is 40%.  

You could just about make a case for either at those prices, which isn't very helpful, and you'd think siding with the chaser in a rain-affected game, is the way to go.  

Then again, all of that might be something of an irrelevance. One betting company makes it a 4/1 chance that the game will be completed, that we'll have a result and a winer for the Series; so, it looks like a rained-off match is very much on the cards.    

*For all the latest and live England vs South Africa Cricket Odds then head over to betfred.com 

England Top Bowler  

Again, this upcoming tip may prove to be a waste of time. A reminder that for bets to stand on a top bowler or top bat market, the following needs to happen:  

“In limited overs cricket matches affected by weather, a minimum number of overs (as specified below) must be bowled, unless the team is all out or has won the match or the Top Batter/Wicket Taker bet has been unconditionally determined, otherwise all Top Batsman/Wicket Taker bets will be deemed void.” 

• 50-over ODI/Domestic matches - 20 overs 
• 20-over International/Domestic matches - 6 overs 
• 100-ball matches - 30 balls 

The key point there is that if you’re playing a top bat or bowler market, at least six overs need to be completed. 

So back to Archer. He played in all three ODIs, going wicketless in the first but hitting back with figures of 4/62 in the second and 4/18 in the third. He wasn’t risked in the 1st T20I where conditions were downright dangerous but took 3/25 on Friday in the second game. Unsurprisingly, he won the top bowler market in all three. His career figures of 44 wickets in 33 T20Is are excellent.  

It's a bit odd that Adil Rashid is the same price as Archer at 5/2. Not only has Archer been in slightly better form but the conditions on the day should suit a fast bowler who can make it zip around far more than a spinner who might struggle to grip the ball in wet conditions.  

Luke Wood could be lively in those conditions too at 7/2, but I’d rather go with the class act.