Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest Stats-Based Bet Builder Tips: Back Calafiori and corners in 15/2 shot

Arsenal and Nottingham Forest return to action on Saturday (12:30 BST, TNT Sports 1) at the Emirates Stadium, where Gunners head coach Mikel Arteta will come face-to-face with an old adversary. Nuno Espirito Santo was sacked as Forest boss earlier this week, with former Spurs manager Ange Postecoglou named as his replacement.

Read on for my Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest Stats-Based Bet Builder Tips, in which I have made four selections, combining for a 15/2 payout.

Match Result - Arsenal

Arsenal have won three of their last four meetings with Forest, and all three games at the Emirates since the Tricky Trees earned promotion from the EFL Championship in 2022.

The Gunners romped to a 3-0 victory in north London last November, and Forest's chances of achieving a positive result on Saturday aren't helped by a change of manager, in my opinion; Postecoglou lost both games against Arsenal last season as Spurs boss.

Premier League Odds

Arteta's charges may have lost last time out, but that was away to reigning champions Liverpool, who were reliant on a stunning Dominik Szoboszlai free-kick to claim all three points. Before that defeat at Anfield, Arsenal hadn't conceded a goal, beating Manchester United 1-0 at Old Trafford and Leeds United 5-0 at home.

Back at the Emirates this weekend, I expect last season's runners-up to return to winning ways against a Forest side that drew their first away game 1-1 at Crystal Palace, and were thumped 3-0 at the City Ground by a confidence-stricken West Ham United just before the September international break.

Arsenal Total Corners Over/Under 7.5 - Over

Arsenal took a combined 19 corners against Forest last season, eight at the Emirates, and 11 at the City Ground. That was one more than in 2023/24, when they earned eight corners in north London and 10 in Nottingham.

The Gunners have won 14 corners so far this season, with eight of those coming in their last game at Anfield.

Forest have conceded 13 corners, but seven came last time out against West Ham.

Arsenal are the Premier League corner kings, having scored 33 goals from them since the start of the 2023/24 campaign - at least 13 more than any other top-flight English team. They'll be looking to win more on Saturday to give the likes of Gabriel Magalhaes and Riccardo Calafiori the chance to head home.

Riccardo Calafiori Total Shots - 1+

Arsenal left-back Calafiori made a lively start to the season, scoring the only goal of the game at Old Trafford on the opening weekend to hand his side a 1-0 win over Man United.

The 23-year-old didn't find the net in his next two matches, but it wasn't for the want of trying, as he recorded three shots apiece against Leeds and Liverpool.

Calafiori is averaging 2.3 shots per game for the Gunners this term, up from 0.5 per game in last season's Premier League, although the sample size for 2025/26 is admittedly small.

Still, he also registered a shot in his only appearance for Italy during the September internationals, heading wide from a set-piece in Gli Azzurri's 5-0 thrashing of Estonia in their 2026 Fifa World Cup qualifier.

He came close to scoring in his last appearance against Forest, too, hitting the post with a right-footed effort at the City Ground in February.

Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest Odds

Forest conceded three headed shots to opposition centre-backs in their first game this season against Brentford, with Sepp van den Berg responsible for two, and Nathan Collins the other. They then gave up two headed shots to Palace centre-backs in their second match, with Maxence Lacroix forcing a save from Matz Sels, and Marc Guehi hitting the woodwork.

Then, last time out, West Ham central defender Konstantinos Mavropanos missed the target with a header from a corner.

Clearly, there are some vulnerabilities present in Forest's defence from corners, and Calafiori will try and take advantage of that on Saturday.

Player Shown Any Card - Neco Williams (NFO)

Versatile Forest full-back Neco Williams has started all three Premier League games this season on the left, but he may be required to switch sides on Saturday with regular right-back Ola Aina picking up an injury on international duty with Nigeria.

Williams is a more than capable replacement for Aina, but the 24-year-old is a player who picks up his fair share of cards.

Today's Football Fixtures

The Wales international has been shown exactly seven yellows in two of the last three Premier League campaigns, and he's already off the mark for 2025/26, having been booked in Forest's opening game against Brentford. He was also cautioned in his country's World Cup qualifier against Kazakhstan last week, making two fouls in total from right-back.

On Saturday, Williams could be in a direct battle with one of Arsenal's big summer signings Eberechi Eze, who joined from Crystal Palace last month. Eze does most of his good work off the left, cutting in on his dangerous right foot, and he may get the nod to start this weekend ahead of Gabriel Martinelli, a more traditional left-winger.

Eze averaged 1.5 fouls won per game in last season's Premier League; ironically, Williams was booked the last time he faced the England ace, in a 1-1 draw between Forest and Palace in May, albeit he wasn't disciplined for a foul committed on the 27-year-old.

There's more chance of the two being in close contact on Saturday, though, with Aina potentially sidelined, and if Eze does get the chance to take on Williams at the Emirates, the Forest man may be forced to take alternative action to deal with his opponent.

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