England vs South Africa Prediction: Brook and Rabada to show their class in 1st ODI

Jamie Pacheco is fresh from delivering an 8.71-point profit on the Hundred, including an 11/2 winner in the final and now turns his attention to the 1st ODI between England and South Africa at Headingley, start time 13:00, live on Sky Sports Main Event.   

There are 4/1 and 5/2 shots worth backing here, so keep on reading to find out what they are and why as he takes us through his top England vs South Africa Predictions for Tuesday's match...  

*You can check out all of our Cricket Odds over at betfred.com

England 

There's no rest for the wicked if your name is Harry Brook, Joe Root or Ben Duckett, who went straight from playing in an exhausting Test Series against India into the Hundred, playing all matches, then reporting for ODI duty. In Brook's case - skipper of both the Superchargers and England's ODI side - it was somewhat inevitable, while Joe Root never looks particularly tired or in need of a break, and probably wants to play as much cricket as possible in the twilight of his career.  

But quite why Duckett was called up after looking mentally and physically spent during the Hundred, is anyone's guess. Give the guy a rest rather than draining him. Besides, they're not going to learn much about him that they don't already know.   

There are three keepers in the squad - Tom Banton, Jos Buttler and Jamie Smith- and they may well all play at some stage, but it's been confirmed already that in the 1st ODI Buttler will keep wicket, while Smith will open.   

Adil Rashid and Jofra Archer are the main men with the ball while it will be interesting to see if they can find a place for Rehan Ahmed at some stage, who had an excellent tournament in the Hundred with both bat and ball. Sonny Baker makes his ODI debut.  

South Africa  

This lot haven't had much of a break, either, having played their last ODI out in Australia just over a week ago, a Series they won 2-1. It's never easy beating Australia at the best of times so to do it away from home shows this is a team in decent shape.  

Kagiso Rabada missed the ODI Series, having played in the preceding T20 one, but returns to the squad here and will be their key man with the ball. Look out for 19-year-old Lhuan-dre Gilbert Pretorius, a keeper/batsman who first caught the eye in the SA20 and who has been fast-tracked into the international side. He's played a few T20Is, has a Test century (against Zimbabwe) to his name already but if he gets a game here, it would be his ODI debut.  

Temba Bavuma leads and Aiden Markram, Keshav Maharaj, Rabada and Lungi Ngidi are the other senior men in a well-balanced team.  

Pitch and conditions

Since Headingley was used as a venue for the 2019 World Cup, there have been just three ODIs played here and the first two didn't produce a result. South Africa managed to get in just half of their overs with the bat against England in 2022 before the rain came, while England v Ireland a year later didn't even see the toss happen, again due to rain.  

But last year we did get a game in with Australia posting and defending 270. England were bowled out for just 202, despite fielding a strong batting line-up on the day.  

Given Headingley has the reputation as the best batting wicket in the country at the moment and that poor effort at a chase from England looks a bit of anomaly. You'd think 300 would be a bare minimum batting first.  

There may be some slight showers but not enough to be worried about a loss in overs, much less that we'll get a completed match.  

Match Winner Odds

I've thought long and hard about whether South Africa are worth a bet at 11/8, implied probability of 42%. England are 4/7, which translates to 63.6%.  

The reasoning behind the bet would have been the Proteas' strong showing out in Australia over the last couple of weeks, added to the fact this looks a strong side with good balance thanks to a couple of good all-rounders, plus the usual sky-high fielding standards, and the return of Rabada. One of the best in the world whatever the format. 

The fly in the ointment is of course the fact they've had little or no time to acclimatise to English conditions. True that conditions in Australia are more similar to English ones than if they'd just been in India or Bangladesh, but the point still stands.   

I might regret this but South Africa aren't quite big enough.  

*You can check out all the latest and live England vs South Africa 1st ODI Odds over on betfred.com

England Top Batsman  

I like Harry Brook here at 4/1. By his standards, one century in 29 matches isn't fantastic in this format but an average of 36 and s strike rate over 100 suggest he's going to get better and better in 50-over cricket over the next couple of years and become one of the world's best.  

He was in good form in the Hundred and this is of course his home ground so further reason to think he could go big. Batting at four on what is sometimes a tricky wicket first up means it shouldn't be for a lack of deliveries that he won't get a fair chance, so he ticks lots of boxes.  

South Africa Top Bowler  

We're not winning many points for originality here but that's neither here, nor there.  

Kagiso Rabada has a strike rate of 32.4 in ODIs which is excellent and plenty of experience of playing in England, mostly at international level but also courtesy of a spell with Kent a few years ago.  

He will have appreciated the rest thanks to sitting out that ODI series against Australia, so will come into this one fresh and raring to go.  

Maharaj (14/5) may find the track won't turn much, while Mulder and Markram are unlikely to be given their full allocation of overs. Ngidi, another one with an excellent strike rate deserves respect at 13/5 but Rabada is alongside Archer the best bowler on the field, so we're going with the obvious selection here, but that's for good reason.  

Jamie Pacheco Cricket P/L 2025:

• Points Staked: 89
• Points Returned: 87.72
• Current P/L: -1.28

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...