Real Oviedo vs Real Madrid Prediction: Alonso’s side to start slow but win

Our Madrid-based La Liga betting expert enjoyed a sparkling Week 1 in Spain with five winners from six. Here's hoping he can carry on that good form throughout the second round of games. On Sunday, Real Madrid travel to Oviedo for a 20:30 kick-off (UK time) and Premier Sports 1 will be broadcasting the match live.

Mark Sochon previews the match for us here on Betfred Insights including his two key Real Oviedo vs Real Madrid Predictions...

You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Real Madrid head to Asturias on the second weekend of La Liga 2025/26. They are up against newly promoted Real Oviedo, who are playing their first top-flight home game in 24 years. 

The Estadio Carlos Tartiere will be bouncing at kick-off, as it was in the play-offs last term when Los Azules finally ended their long absence from Spain's elite level. Their passionate fanbase should brighten up the Primera División, but there are major doubts as to whether they'll be competitive on the pitch. 

Oviedo started the season away to Villarreal, and they were immediately under the cosh in that game, before being presented with a sudden opportunity to take the lead. Salomón Rondón spurned it with a woeful penalty, and the game quickly slipped away from Veljko Paunović's side after that. 

Alberto Reina picked up a second booking in just the 25th minute, to leave Oviedo down to 10 men, and their hosts scored twice before the interval. The Yellow Submarine were in cruise control after that, in a game that ended 2-0. 

It's very difficult to make a definitive judgement on how competitive the newly promoted side are going to be at this stage. They have been busy in the transfer market, with 11 signings completed so far. That includes former Premier League duo Eric Bailly and Leander Dendoncker who have both completed moves to the Carlos Tartiere this week. 

Those additions are certainly welcome, and the versatile Dendoncker may prove to be a smart signing given his ability to operate in defence or midfield. There are more doubts about Bailly, whose career has largely stalled since he made the move to Manchester United in 2016. 

Welcoming Real Madrid to Asturias is some way for Oviedo to mark their return to this level. They may feel that it's not the worst time to be playing Los Blancos either, given Xabi Alonso's side have not benefitted from much of a pre-season. 

They looked a little rusty in their opening game on Tuesday night against Osasuna. The new boss will want to see much more fluidity from his team as time progresses, but they got the job done, although only thanks to a penalty from Kylian Mbappé which sealed a 1-0 victory. 

Alonso lined up with a 4-3-3 system in that game. It seems any attempt to switch to playing with three central defenders is on hold for now, with the basic structure that Carlo Ancelotti tended to use still in place. 

However, there have been some significant personnel changes, particularly in defence. Álvaro Carreras, Dean Huijsen and Trent Alexander-Arnold all made their league debuts for Madrid on Tuesday, with Éder Militão completing the back four. Huijsen was the pick of the bunch with a really confident first start in La Liga from the ex-Bournemouth man. 

Alexander-Arnold didn't really impose himself on the game, and was replaced by the fit-again Dani Carvajal on 68 minutes. The Spaniard is very popular at the Bernabéu, and a genuine battle for the right-back role could develop over the coming months. 

We also got our first glimpses of Franco Mastantuono in a Real Madrid shirt. The Argentine was only able to join up with his new teammates when he turned 18 last week, but he looked very assured when he came on, and Alonso clearly views the teenager as a player who can make an immediate impact. 

Team News: 

The hosts will be missing Reina following his sending off on matchday one. They are also missing Álvaro Lemos, Jaime Seoane and Lucas Ahijado to injuries, while Ovie Ejaria, Santiago Colombatto and Brandon Dominguès are rated doubtful. 

This match may come too soon for Bailly, but Dendoncker is likely to feature, either as a starter or off the bench, following his move from Aston Villa. 

As for Real Madrid, Alonso has the option of simply naming an unchanged lineup. That may be the way he goes, although Mastantuono and Carvajal are pushing for inclusion, while Antonio Rüdiger is available again after completing a six-game suspension. 

Jude Bellingham and Endrick remain sidelined due to injuries. There are also doubts over Eduardo Camavinga and Ferland Mendy for the visitors. 

Match Odds: 

Real Madrid head north as the 3/10 favourites to win this game. Real Oviedo are on offer at 10/1 to seal what would be a famous victory, while you can back the draw at 4/1. 

Given Los Blancos failed to create much in open play in their first game, this may not be as one-sided as those odds suggest. You can back there to be Under 2.5 goals at 11/10, while Real Madrid and Under 3.5 goals is priced at 19/20. 

If you fancy the new boys to be competitive, you can go with Real Oviedo +2.00 Handicap at 5/6. Meanwhile, Oviedo or Draw is on offer at 23/10 in the Double Chance market. 

In their opening game, Mbappé was the standout performer from an attacking perspective for Real Madrid. He had six attempts on goal, and you can back the Frenchman to score first at 9/4, or score anytime at 4/6 here. Vinícius Júnior is available at 7/5 to get on the scoresheet. 

From a home perspective, you can back Rondón to make up for his opening night penalty miss by scoring anytime at 4/1. The tricky Ilyas Chaira could also ask questions, and he's priced at 13/2 to score in this game. 

*You can check out all the latest and live Real Oviedo vs Real Madrid Odds over on betfred.com

Bet 1 - HT/FT - Draw/Real Madrid @ 3/1 

The expectation is that Oviedo will set up very defensively, and likely look to replicate Osasuna's approach which restricted Madrid to very few clear chances in midweek. They have key defender David Costas available again following suspension, and should be able to put up some resistance. 

It may take a few more weeks before we see Alonso's team hit top gear following their Club World Cup involvement, so despite the huge gulf in terms of quality, we probably shouldn't expect a cricket score here. 

I can see the Asturians potentially holding firm until the break, and I'm backing Draw/Real Madrid in the HF/FT market at 3/1, a bet that landed earlier this week. 

Bet 2 - Team with most booking points - Real Oviedo @ 5/6 

Emotions will be high at the Carlos Tartiere on Sunday. This night has been a very long time coming from a Real Oviedo perspective. They've dropped down to the fourth tier since they were last in the Primera División, and there were various points when they could have gone out of business altogether. 

The atmosphere should be red-hot, and we should see nothing less than a fully committed performance from the home team. Faced with the likes of Vinícius and Mbappé, there may be times when tactical fouls are necessary too, and I think there's value in backing Real Oviedo to be the team with the most booking points at 5/6.