Real Madrid vs Osasuna Prediction: Real to win low-scoring encounter

Our Madrid-based La Liga betting expert is primed and ready to write the about Even-money second-favourites to win La Liga as Real Madrid take to the pitch for the first time this season on Tuesday night. Premier Sports 2 is the place to be to watch in the UK with kick-off set for 20:00.

Osasuna are the visitors and they are one of the shorter-prices to be relegated. That seems to indicate a home win looks good on paper but where is the betting value? Mark Sochon looks into it with his match preview here on Betfred Insights and of course - those all-important Real Madrid vs Osasuna Predictions...

You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Real Madrid kick off their La Liga campaign with a home game against Osasuna on Tuesday night. It marks the true start of the Xabi Alonso era at the Santiago Bernabéu, while Los Blancos will also hand league debuts to a number of new signings. 

We've already had a glimpse of what to expect from Alonso's Madrid at the Club World Cup, although with very limited preparation time ahead of that tournament, the coming weeks and months should give us a much clearer idea of the direction this team is likely going to head in. 

Real Madrid reached the semi-finals in the United States, seeing off Juventus and Borussia Dortmund, before their flaws were brutally exposed by PSG who won their last-four showdown 4-0 in New Jersey. There were certainly parallels with the final year under Carlo Ancelotti, whose side had enough to brush away most opponents, but invariably came unstuck whenever they faced elite teams. 

After only a limited pre-season that saw Los Blancos play just one friendly match, a 4-0 victory in Austria against WSG Tirol, it's perhaps unrealistic to expect them to hit top gear in their opening league game. However, Madridistas will want to see a clear style starting to emerge in the coming weeks under the guidance of Alonso who played for the club for five years between 2009 and 2014. 

Among the priorities for the new coach will be finding a way to get the best out of both Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior. They are unquestionably two of the most talented attacking players in world football, but struggled to click as a combination last term. 

Restructuring and ultimately improving the defence will be another major goal for Alonso. The long-term objective may be a switch to the back three he used in Leverkusen, but he could stick with a back four initially. Trent Alexander-Arnold and Dean Huijsen are both expected to make their La Liga debuts on Tuesday night, following summer moves from Liverpool and Bournemouth respectively. 

Osasuna were beaten 4-0 on this ground last term. Their squad hasn't radically changed since then, but they do have a new coach at the helm, with Alessio Lisci replacing Vicente Moreno who guided Los Rojillos to a respectable 9th-place finish in what turned out to be his only season in charge. 

The Pamplona-based side missed out on European qualification on the final weekend, with a 1-1 draw away to Alavés denying them a crack at the Conference League. 

They benefited massively from the goalscoring prowess of Ante Budimir. The Croatian netted 21 league goals, 44% of his team's total, as he finished behind only Mbappé and Robert Lewandowski in the Pichichi race. Having also netted 17 times the season before that, the 34-year-old is now established as one of the most lethal strikers in La Liga, and he'll be key to Osasuna's chances of having a good campaign. 

There is optimism at El Sadar that they've secured the services of one of Europe's brightest young coaches by appointing Lisci. The Italian worked wonders with Mirandés last season, guiding the Segunda División minnows to the play-off final and the brink of promotion to the top flight for the first time. 

He has a reputation for developing young talent, but so far hasn't been heavily backed in the transfer market, with only two new signings made. Right-back Valentin Rosier should be a solid addition on a free transfer from recently relegated Leganés, while 21-year-old winger Víctor Muñoz has joined from Tuesday's opponents Real Madrid in a €5m deal. 

Team News: 

Los Blancos were hampered by significant selection issues towards the end of last season, and those have not completely cleared up.  

They'll still be missing Antonio Rüdiger here, with the German serving the final game of a six-match ban. Jude Bellingham also misses out due to a shoulder injury, while Endrick is unavailable with a hamstring issue, although it feels like he has slipped below young striker Gonzalo García in the pecking order in any case. 

Eduardo Camavinga and Ferland Mendy are also rated doubtful, with new signing Álvaro Carreras pushing for a start at left-back in what is a much-changed defence from last season. 

As for Osasuna, they are expected to play with three centre-backs in this game. Lisci should have a full squad to pick from, with the possible exception of winger Iker Benito who is an injury concern. 

Budimir may play as a lone striker, with 23-year-old Aimar Oroz the player who is most likely to offer support from midfield. 

Match Odds: 

Real Madrid are the clear favourites at 2/9 to win this game. You can back Osasuna to spring a huge surprise at the Bernabéu at odds of 12/1, while the Draw is priced at 11/2. 

If you're expecting Los Blancos to make a statement in their first league game under Alonso, you can back Real Madrid -2.00 Handicap at 7/4, a bet that has landed in this fixture in each of the last two seasons. The hosts are also priced at 1/1 to score over 2.5 goals in the game, while you can back them to score in both halves at 4/5. 

Alternatively, Draw or Osasuna is on offer at 11/4 in the Double Chance market, while you can back Over 0.5 Osasuna goals at 10/11. 

Mbappé leads the way as the 2/1 favourite to score first, while he's priced at 4/7 to score anytime. Vinícius is available at 23/20 to get on the scoresheet, while you can back Budimir to score anytime at 11/4. Meanwhile, Alexander-Arnold is on offer at 9/2 to mark his La Liga debut with a goal. 

*You can check out all the latest and live Real Madrid vs Osasuna Odds over on betfred.com

Bet 1 - Real Madrid & Under 3.5 goals @ 21/20 

There has been much talk of how the Club World Cup might impact on the seasons of the top European sides who played a part in it. Of the other European teams to reach the semi-finals, Chelsea started their Premier League campaign with a 0-0 home draw against Crystal Palace on Sunday, while PSG edged out Nantes 1-0 in Ligue 1. 

I'm not expecting Real Madrid to be at their very best in this game either. That's partially down to fitness and match sharpness issues given their extremely limited pre-season. However, it's also a reflection of the big job Alonso has on his hands in terms of raising standards across the pitch following a pretty underwhelming 2024/25 campaign at the Bernabéu. 

They were far from perfect at the Club World Cup, but with so much individual quality, the hosts should still find a way to win this game. I'm backing Real Madrid and Under 3.5 goals at 21/20. 

Bet 2 - Alejandro Catena to receive a card @ 12/5 

With Osasuna expected to set up with a back three, it's likely that Alejandro Catena will be the right-sided central defender. He's a solid player, but the 30-year-old is sometimes quick to jump into a challenge and has been booked at least eight times in each of the last four La Liga seasons, while only five players picked up more yellows in this league last term. 

Given his position in this match will leave him responsible for dealing with both Mbappé and Vinícius at times, I can see value in backing Catena to receive a card at 12/5.