Fenerbahce vs Benfica Prediction: Back the 5/2 stalemate in Istanbul

Fenerbahçe host Benfica in the first leg of the last stage of qualifying for the Champions League on Wednesday night, kick off 20:00 and shown live on TNT Sports 2.  

Jamie Pacheco talks you through the team news, form and his best bets ahead of this one as he takes us through his Fenerbahce vs Benfica Predictions...    

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Fenerbahçe  

Jose Mourinho's first season at Fenerbahçe was colourful to say the least and as per usual, he was never far too away from controversy, being involved in more incidents than we have the time to list here.  

On the pitch, his team finished 11 points adrift of Galatasaray though in truth, Mourinho's men also ended a huge 20 points better off than third-place Samsunspor.  

Their reward was a tough-looking tie against Feyenoord in the previous round of qualifying and things weren't looking good after losing the first leg 2-1 and then going 1-0 down at home just before half-time un the second leg.  

But they hit back to win 5-2 and set up this tie.  

Despite fielding a strong side at the weekend in the opening match of their domestic season, they could only manage a 0-0 draw at Goztepe in a game with three red cards in it. Mourinho won't have been best pleased that former Benfica man Talisca missed a 94th minute penalty to win the game.   

Benfica 

We were right about the potential for a low-scoring match when Benfica hosted Nice in the second leg of the previous round so that provided us a good winner at 5/4 in the only bet of the game. Sure, a little bit fortunate that it was 2-0 after 27 minutes and that a third never came but betting can be a cruel game, and we need to take these strokes of luck when they come our way.  

That win was followed by a hard-fought effort on Saturday night at Estrela de Amadora in a match where they have the excellent Ukrainian keeper Anatoliy Trubin to thank for the win because he made two or three crucial saves. In the end, the game was decided by a Vangelis Pavlidis second-half penalty and though Benfica weren't impressive, they'll be delighted to take the win, move on and focus on this one.  

They have a brand-new central midfield partnership in Enzo Barrenechea and Richard Rios and both have hit the ground running.  

Fenerbahce vs Benfica Odds

Both teams are 8/5, which is implied probability of 38.5% with the draw bigger at 5/2.  

Home advantage isn't quite as an important a factor as in the past but in the case of Fenerbahçe it's probably worth more than for other teams. And Mourinho may not be quite the force of old, but he's seen it all before and built a career on exactly these sorts of even ties where his nous, experience an at times use of the dark arts has proved priceless.  

Then again, Benfica look a better side on paper and have won their first four matches of the season and all without conceding. So, you can see why the prices are the same on both sides.  

The draw looks the pick of the three purely on price. Neither side would see it as too disastrous, with Mourinho fancying himself to engineer something in the second leg, while Benfica would bank on winning at home. It's just about worth a bet.  

Over/Under 2.5 Goals  

As we said above, Benfica are yet to concede in four matches so it's a bit surprising that it's 4/6 on 'overs' here, especially when you consider that all of Benfica's four matches this season have stayed 'unders', which is 6/5.  

Anytime Goalscorers  

Either way, Benfica should be good for a goal. It's almost unheard of for them to not score and not getting one will make the second leg a tough ask, so they'll be happy to take some risks.  

Pavlidis (8/5) and Franjo Ivanovic (15/8) are the obvious threats but I'd rather split stakes between two bigger-priced players.  

Schjelderup has been a regular starter with Karem Arturkoglu currently out of favour on that left wing and scored one against Nice, also having his chances against Estrela. He's 11/4.  

At 9/2 you can back that man Rios. He's not been prolific so far in his career but clearly has an eye for goal and has been tasked with being the central midfielder expected make runs into the box, already coming close on a couple of occasions this season.  

Jamie Pacheco Football P/L 2025 (Excludes 3-3-3 column):  

• Points Staked: 2 

• Points Returned: 2.25  

• Current P/L: +0.25   

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Football Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Football hub page...