Knights vs Panthers Prediction: Champs won’t make the same mistake twice

Inevitable though it was, the Penrith Panthers’ surge up the NRL Premiership table has been spectacular. On Friday they head to McDonald Jones Stadium to face the Newcastle Knights with an eight-match winning run to extend (18:00 local, 09:00 BST).

Ivan Cleary’s men are peaking at the perfect time in their pursuit of a magnificent fifth successive Grand Final win, and it would take a brave soul to back against them in the Hunter Region. Read on for my Knights vs Panthers predictions, as well as updated team news and Betfred’s match odds.

Knights vs Panthers Odds

The bookies clearly think the Panthers are going to be revved up after their incredible caollapse-turned-comeback last week against the Gold Coast Titans.

The champs are 1/4 with Betfred to win inside 80 minutes this time, with the Knights a distant 3/1.

Fancy Penrith to be held in regular time once more? It’s a 22/1 shot to happen for a second week running.

On the regular two-way handicap Cleary’s troops are given the task of overcoming an 11.5-point start. Under those conditions, they are 5/6 against the Knights’ 10/11.

Team News

Adam O’Brien goes looking for a first win in five with his Knights side boosted by the return of Bradman Best. The ace centre suffered a knee injury in round 20 but is now fit once more.

Tyson Gamble drops to 18th man to allow Jake Arthur to make his debut in the halves, while there’s no Jackson Hastings on the bench. Thomas Cant and Elijah Salesa Leaumoana are among the interchange options.

There’s no Isaah Yeo for the Panthers due to a shoulder problem, meaning Liam Martin steps up to make the start from the second row wth Isaiah Papali’i switching to 13.

Luron Patea’s collarbone issue keeps him out of contention, but Scott Sorensen is a sub after return from a leg complaint.

Rugby League Odds

Handicap 3-way Alt 1: Panthers - 16 @ 8/5

The Knights have really been through it of late, with the Panthers representing their sixth successive opponents from the current top six in the standings.

There was a kink in the champs’ armour last week as Penrith dropped a 24-0 lead to the Titans before a late two-point field-goal rescued a share of the spoils and Blaize Talagi went over in golden point to win the game.

But that was heavily swayed by Izack Tago’s sin-binning for a tackle off the ball, with Gold Coast scoring 16 points in his absence, and there’s surely no way Cleary would let his side get away with that kind of performance twice.

I just don’t see a way in which they let up in this one. They’re a far better side than the Knights, and once they build a lead they ought to be keeping their foot on the hosts’ throats following the lessons learned at Cbus.

The standard handicap sits around 12 points, but in the search for a little more value I’m happy to extend that to 16 to pick up the 8/5 available at an implied probability of 38.5%.

Panthers over 30.5 Points @ 6/4

The Panthers have only registered 31 points or more on five occasions this season, but in the last four matches they have chalked up 30-plus every time.

And given the expected response to last week’s near-failure against the Titans, I can well see Penrith making hay here.

There’s no doubting that they are the team to beat once more after overcoming their horrific start to the season which had them sat at the bottom of the pile eight games ago.

So why can’t they score six tries or more against a Knights side which conceded 44 to the Canberra Raiders last time out?

This is a 6/4 chance (40% implied probability) which is on the inviting side.

You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.