Premier League Relegation Odds: Burnley and Sunderland odds-on for early returns

Southampton, Ipswich Town and Leicester City were unable to defy the odds last season as the promoted trio were all relegated back to the EFL Championship. Taking their place in 2025/26 are Leeds United, Burnley and Sunderland, but can the three newcomers pose a credible threat to the status quo?

Below are the Premier League Relegation Odds, with an analysis of the eight most-fancied sides for the drop...

Burnley @ 1/3

Under Sean Dyche, Burnley were a stable Premier League club for five seasons, finishing as high as seventh in 2017/18 and 10th two seasons later, but things unravelled in their sixth campaign, with the Clarets boss paying the price with eight games left. The Lancashire side didn't manage to avoid relegation, however, and after bouncing straight back up under Vincent Kompany, they went straight back down under the Belgian, who left to take over German giants Bayern Munich.

Scott Parker was brought in as Kompany's replacement in the Turf Moor dugout and orchestrated their return to the top flight, with the Clarets becoming the first club in English football history to reach a century of points but not win their league title, as Leeds United pipped them to the trophy on goal difference.

Despite a seemingly positive season, you won't find many people who aren't backing Burnley to finish bottom of the 2025/25 Premier League campaign, and that's reflected by their 1/3 price.

There are an abundance of reasons for this, chiefly the pessimism surrounding Parker's Premier League credentials, as he oversaw two relegations at Fulham, and as AFC Bournemouth boss, was sacked just four games into the 2022/23 season following three straight defeats, the last of which was a 9-0 hammering by Liverpool at Anfield.

Parker also received his fair share of criticism last term, with Burnley grinding out wins rather than swatting teams aside. They conceded a league-low 16 goals, 14 fewer than the next-best defence (Leeds - 30), but goalkeeper James Trafford, who was so crucial to their success, was lured back to former club Manchester City last month, and the arrivals of Kyle Walker (Man City), Jacob Bruun Larsen (VFL Stuttgart), Armando Broja and Lesley Ugochukwu (both Chelsea) aren't exactly inspiring.

I think Burnley will struggle for goals this season, with last season's 18-goal marksman and captain Josh Brownhill leaving on a free, while they won't be able to rely upon such a resolute back line this time around, making them clear candidates to finish bottom.

Sunderland @ 4/11

There's a much different feel around Sunderland, who have made a big splash in the transfer market, spending significant sums on Granit Xhaka (Bayer Leverkusen), Simon Adingra (Brighton & Hove Albion), Chemsdine Talbi (Club Brugge), Habib Diarra (Strasbourg), Noah Sadiki (Union Saint-Gilloise) and Enzo Le Fee (AS Roma), with the latter making his loan move permanent.

The 2024/25 EFL Championship play-off final winners needed a squad overhaul to compete at this level, similar to that of Nottingham Forest two years ago, but there will be concerns that, like Forest, there has been too much change, and the essence of the side could be lost.

I think the Black Cats will make a good fist of it this season, and I wouldn't completely rule out Regis Le Bris' charges achieving survival, but they're up against a lot of big dogs in this league, and a relegation battle is surely likely.

Leeds United @ 1/1

Championship winners Leeds are rated as the most likely promoted side to avoid relegation, but they're still third-favourites, highlighting the gulf in finances between the first and second tiers.

Like Burnley, their head coach, Daniel Farke, came under fire at times last season, which was no surprise following a failure to achieve promotion the season before.

But, ultimately, the German boss led the Whites back to the promised land, and in some style, too, as they hit 100 points and lifted the title.

Unlike the last time they were promoted to the Premier League, back in 2020 under Marcelo Bielsa, there have been no standout signings like Rodrigo or Raphinha, but they appear have made several shrewd additions, adding Sean Longstaff (Newcastle United), Jaka Bijol (Udinese), Gabriel Gudmundsson (Lille OSC), Anton Stach (Hoffenheim), Lucas Perri (Olympique Lyonnais), Lukas Nmecha and Sebastiaan Bornauw (both VFL Wolfsburg).

Only Nmecha is an attacker, though, so there are still reservations surrounding their forward line, and whether they can score enough goals in the Premier League, although there is still plenty of time left to beef up their attack.

All three promoted clubs were relegated straight back to the Championship at the end of the 2024/25 campaign, and Burnley, Sunderland and Leeds are in grave danger of following suit.

Brentford @ 3/1

Brentford are a popular shout for relegation following a huge summer of change at the Gtech Community Stadium.

Head coach Thomas Frank, who had been in charge of the Bees since October 2018, was lured to north London by reigning Uefa Europa League champions Tottenham Hotspur, and he was followed out of the exit door by captain Christian Norgaard (Arsenal), goalkeeper Mark Flekken (Bayer Leverkusen) and 20-goal top scorer Bryan Mbeumo (Manchester United), while 19-goal forward Yoane Wissa appears hell-bent on a move.

Keith Andrews, who served as set-piece coach at Brentford last season, has been appointed to his first managerial role, a decision that raised more than a few eyebrows.

Jordan Henderson (Ajax) has been brought in by Andrews, presumably to cover the midfield and leadership holes left by Norgaard, while Caoimhin Kelleher (Liverpool) has replaced Flekken between the sticks; Antoni Milambo (Feyenoord) is their most expensive recruit so far, though.

The west London side finished 10th last season, 31 points ahead of relegated Leicester City (18th), and just nine points off the European places, but it would be a big surprise if they were able to emulate that achievement in 2025/26, and staying up will be the priority.

I'm not writing them off as many are, though, and a fully-fit Igor Thiago, who was restricted to just eight league appearances last season, should help to fill the void left by Mbeumo, while Kelleher is an astute signing in goal.

Wolverhampton Wanderers @ 10/3

Wolves looked destined for a relegation scrap in 2024/25, but after dispensing with the services of Gary O'Neil in December, Vitor Pereira was brought in, and the Portuguese boss steadied the ship, notably leading the Old Gold to six consecutive wins in the spring. Despite taking just a point from their final four games, they finished 17 points above the drop zone.

However, skipper Nelson Semedo (Fenerbahce), 15-goal top scorer Matheus Cunha (Manchester United) and tricky left wing-back Rayan Ait-Nouri (Manchester City) have departed Molineux this summer, while 14-goal striker Jorgen Strand Larsen continues to be linked with a move to Newcastle United, so Pereira has a big job on his hands this season.

I like the signing of Colombian attacker Jhon Arias (Fluminense), though, while David Moller Wolfe (AZ Alkmaar) and Fernando Lopez (Celta Vigo) have also joined the club.

It could be another tough season for the Old Gold, but with their two Brazilians, Andre and Joao Gomes, holding things down in midfield, they should have enough to finish above the promoted three.

West Ham United @ 11/2

West Ham endured a dismal 2024/25 campaign after sacking David Moyes, with Julen Lopetegui only lasting until early January before being replaced by Graham Potter. The former Brighton and Chelsea boss wasn't able to have the desired effect at the London Stadium, though, and the Irons ended up 14th, 13 points off the top 10.

Ghanaian attacker Mohammed Kudus has been sold to London rivals Spurs, while several stalwarts, including Vladimir Coufal and Michail Antonio, left on frees, so there have been some significant departures this summer, with the latter two important figures in the dressing room, even if they weren't as integral on the pitch anymore.

The addition of injury-prone striker Callum Wilson (Newcastle) on a free hasn't gone down well in east London, but Kyle Walker-Peters (Southampton) was a smart pick-up following the expiration of his contract, while El Hadji Malick Diouf (Slavia Prague) is an exciting addition at left wing-back.

Still, the Irons look light in a few departments and will likely be too reliant on Jarrod Bowen again. Lucas Paqueta, after being cleared of spot-fixing following a two-year investigation, will be expected to step up significantly following the exit of Kudus, but at this stage, the Brazilian's future is unclear.

Another messy season could be on the horizon, but they should have too much quality to worry about a drop down to the second tier.

Premier League Odds

Today's Football Fixtures

Fulham @ 7/1

It's been a super-quiet transfer window so far for Fulham, whose sole signing has been veteran French goalkeeper Benjamin Lecomte (Montpellier) to replace last season's back-up to Bernd Leno, Steven Benda, who has joined Millwall on loan.

There have been no significant outgoings, though, so the Cottagers have a solid foundation to build on this season.

Head coach Marco Silva, gearing up for his fifth campaign in charge, will be frustrated by the lack of signings so far, but if they can secure a few quality additions before the summer window shuts - Shakhtar Donetsk winger Kevin has been strongly linked - then you'd think that they should be able to steer clear of a relegation battle.

Everton @ 15/2

Moyes took over at Goodison Park in mid-January with the Toffees 16th in the table, just a point clear of the relegation zone, and with just three wins from 19 games.

The Scot's reappointment as manager saw an upturn in results, though, and survival was mathematically achieved with five games to spare.

Everton have since moved home to the new Hill Dickinson Stadium on Bramley-Moore Dock, so we will have to wait and see how they fare in new surroundings.

It was a slow start to the transfer window, with French striker Thierno Barry (Villarreal) their only major capture until July 29, when Adam Aznou (Bayern Munich) was signed to compete with Vitalii Mykolenko at left-back.

Then, last week, the Blues bought Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall from Chelsea to strengthen their midfield. A few more additions, like the 26-year-old, and Everton should be on for a solid mid-table finish under the ever-reliable Moyes.

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