US Horse Racing Tips: Paul picks out three for Sunday

Our Stateside expert, Paul Quigley, brings the week to a close with three selections from Monmouth Park and Saratoga.

Check out his US Racing Tips below.

19:17 Monmouth Park (Race 4) - Tough Guy Tony (6) 7/2

The one two year old with experience is Bod Beach (3). She ran third on debut here last month. The speed figure she ran was hardly huge. That said, she took less money than her stablemate in that maiden who was backed to odds on. That suggests she may not have been fully wound up. Having the benefit of a race and early speed could be a powerful combination against a field of debutantes.

Avigliano (8) is the most expensive sales purchase in here. She is in capable hands but Tough Guy Tony (6) is preferred. Her workouts at Philadelphia have been encouraging. Butch Reid has a super record with first time starters. Go to jockey for him Eliseo Ruiz takes the ride.

Trainers Claudio Gonzalez and Joe Orseno are both double handed. Little Theodore (2) and Bonsai Warrior (4) have been working well for Gonzalez. He has a good record with newcomers. Less so Orseno. His Bonsai Warrior (4) has been working better than stablemate World Wide Web (7).

Follow the Fellow (1) suggested she’s ready to fire on debut after a very nice workout over four furlongs recently.

19:47 Monmouth Park (Race 5) - Mischief Maxey (2) @ 5/1

Many of these fillies and mares have been trying tougher races. That includes West Loop (5). She was a fine fourth in a swiftly run allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream last month. Now dropping in class, she is strictly the gal to beat. The extra half furlong of this race will suit. The one worry with her is lack of speed. That may mean some of her rivals could get the jump on her.

Three of these ran in allowance event over course and distance on 25 June. None of the trio had ideal trips. Definite Diva (6) and Mischief Maxey (2) lost ground being wide on the turn. Definite Diva (6) had the better form going into that race. She’s had plenty of chances to win career race number two. In her defence, they were better races than this one. Mischief Maxey (2) may be the play at the odds. She draws better today and has a chance off a runner up try at Laurel. The other runner Camila T (8) lost all chance after being bumped at the start. She missed by a nose in a similar race to this one prior to that.

Taprixie (7) has been freshened up since a below par run at Tampa in April. She can’t be dismissed running first time for sale. Based on her dirt form, Madam Prosecutor (4) has a bit to do. She is a likely improver tacking the turf for the first time and with the lead on her own.

22:44 Saratoga (Race 9) - Governor Sam (2) @ 6/5

The most proven runner in here by far is Governor Sam (2). He rattled up a hat-trick in stakes as a two year old. Arguably, he ran even better in defeat at The Breeders’ Cup. There he set fast and contested early fractions whereas the pair that beat him sat off the speed. He’s winless in two starts this term but has ran well enough to suggest he retains all his ability. He broke his maiden over course and distance and has been working well for his Saratoga return. His trainer George Weaver is in fine form with three winners here in the last week or so.

Governor Sam (2) will likely be around even money. That probably is borderline acceptable. He was a precocious juvenile and some of his rivals are likely to have their best races may be ahead on them. No Evidence (4) followed up a maiden win with a runner up try in a stake at Gulfstream. He was beaten at odds on next time but the winner and two others from that race came back to score next time.

A trio of these come out of a stake at Aqueduct in May. Insubordination (6) did the best of them running second. He coped well with the cut back from a mile. Some speed to chase down will help his chances. Supersonic Blue (5) and Jet Sweep Joe (1) finished behind him. The first named blew the start. He is better judged on a stakes victory at Santa Anita. Jet Sweep Joe (1) ran better next time beating older horses at Woodbine. More patient riding tactics seemed to suit him.

As well as the favourite Governor Sam (2) and in form Insubordination (6), George Weaver has Ortley Avenue (7) entered. He followed up a maiden win on debut with a stakes runner up at Gulfstream. The runner who beat him had previously turned over No Evidence (4). He is a likely improver. So too is Grayscale (3) trying the turf for the first time. He has shown a good level of form on dirt and is a half brother to a winner on grass. It seems a positive that Flavien Prat takes the ride as he may have other options.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...