PSG vs Inter Miami Prediction: No fairy tale for Lionel Messi

Lionel Messi’s former club takes on his current club in the last 16 of the Club World Cup as European champions PSG face Inter Miami (17:00, live on Betfred) at the Mercedes‑Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Messi’s done many unbelievable things during his career, but if he can drag this bunch of ageing misfits past arguably the best team in the world right now, it would surely go down as the greatest shock he has ever masterminded. 

Below you can find my PSG vs Inter Miami predictions, featuring team news and betting tips.

Football Odds

Team News

Ousmane Dembele is back in training for the French champions which will be a boost to Luis Enrique, given the star forward missed the entirety of the group stage. It feels as though he may not be fit to start this one, but he could feature from the bench. 

That means Goncalo Ramos, Desire Doue and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia should start as the front three, although Senny Mayulu and Bradley Barcola are pushing for starting spots. Vitinha should continue to make things tick in midfield, having completed more passses than any other player during the group stage.

Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos, Willian Pacho and Nuno Mendes will start as the back four, in front of Gianluigi Donnarumma. 

PSG Club World Cup Preview

Messi has six goals in 10 games against PSG in his career and will start up front with Luis Suarez for Miami. Former Barcelona teammate Jordi Alba is now back fit, but will have to win his spot back from Noah Allen while Sergio Busquets will play at the heart of midfield. 

His partner could be Federico Redondo or Benjamin Cremaschi, while Oscar Ustari will continue in goal in the absence of injured goalkeeper Drake Callender. Gonzalo Lujan and Yannick Bright also remain on the treatment table.

PSG vs Inter Miami Odds

Unsurprisingly, PSG are the heavy favourites to win this game at 2/9, giving them an implied win probability of 82% for this last 16 tie. Inter Miami can be backed at a massive 12/1, giving us an idea of the scale of this challenge, and a draw is 6/1. 

Over 2.5 goals is just 1/3, BTTS is 4/5 and Dembele is the favourite to open the scoring at 10/3. Messi is 8/1 in the same market. 

PSG to win to nil @ 23/20 

Sorry Lionel, I can’t see your personal fairy tale coming true in Atlanta. Instead, I’m expecting a dominant display from the European champions, and a big win in truth. PSG suffered that shock loss to Botafogo but they also hammered Atletico Madrid 4-0 and beat fellow MLS outfit Seattle Sounders 2-0 in that final group game to secure top spot. 

Two clean sheets in that time is impressive, but the underlying data is arguably even more so. That goalkeeper and back four is one of the best on the planet, and they have conceded only one goal in their last five matches in all competitions, starting with the Coupe de France final. 

In terms of xG, they have only given their opponents an average of 0.52 per game during that time, with all five games ending in an xGA of less than one. That means they should be able to keep Inter Miami out, despite a certain Argentinian playing in pink. 

talkSPORT Bet Builder - PSG -1, Kvaratskhelia to score or assist & Messi 1+ shot on target @ 3/1

PSG should win this game comfortably, so I’m happy to back them to win with a -1 handicap. I don’t see energy or work rate in this Inter Miami side and that means PSG should be able to beat them with relative ease. 

Part two of this Bet Builder sees us back Kvaratskhelia to score or assist. He’s one of Europe’s top wingers and has bagged 13 goals and 11 assists so far this term. I can see PSG scoring three or four goals in a big win, so it makes sense to back one of their key attackers to contribute. 

We will round this off by backing Messi to have an effort on target. He’s averaged 2.42 shots on target per 90 minutes in MLS this term, and will surely want to land a couple of blows on his former side. 3/1 feels like a good price. 

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