US Horse Racing Tips: Saturday’s focus is on Thistledown

Our US racing expert Paul Quigley is back to deliver his best bets from across the pond, and this time his selections take him to Thistledown.

Check out his US horse racing tips for Saturday below.

21:48 Thistledown (Race 10) - Miz Keeta @ SP

Quite a few chances here.

The speedy Authoritarian Girl (1) has won three of her last four starts. Her latest success came by a head from Lemon Mousse (11) with Kiss Valentina (4) a space back in third. She is progressive. The one worry with her is her inside draw with others likely to take her on early on. Lemon Mousse (11) was coming off a near-year’s layoff when losing narrowly to her.

She only has to improve a little to reverse the form. Off a quick turnaround, she could go the other way the second time back. She certainly seems to have the right running style to win this.

The only recent defeat of Authoritarian Girl (1) came by Kichi Kitsu (10) last month. The rail-drawn filly was coming off a long layoff off and she has improved since. Kichi Kitsu (10) has now run three big races in a row.

She is a player, but like a few of these, seems best when she can dominate. Tierney (7) has speed but has stalked and run her race in the past. She ran a career best when slamming a field over a mile earlier this month. She’s a multiple winner over six furlongs. So too is National Diamond (9). She beat fellow Ohio breds by six lengths over course and distance last time.

A couple in this lineup are worth considering at prices. Lofty Cowtown (3) has been freshened up since beating Kichi Kitsu (10) in March. She won this race last year off an even longer break. There she beat Queenofthebuckeye (2) and Salute the Kid (6). A repeat is not out of the question. However, a slight preference is for Miz Keeta (5).

She faced a tough task and may have been a short horse on her comeback last month. She was a stakes runner-up over a mile last November. The four-year-old has form over six furlongs and is likely to get speed to chase down.

22:35 Thistledown (Race 11) - Where's My Ring @ SP

It may be big prices bar three of these. The Jose Ortiz ridden Peignoir (7) may head the market. She is a progressive four-year-old. At Keeneland in April, she ran away and hid from three rivals in a minor contest.

She has run well in stakes races either side of that. In the latest, she was far from disgraced in a deep event. She has two victories over today’s distance of nine furlongs. Having tactical speed means her rider should be able to place her to her advantage.

A couple of these gals ran in a Grade 3 at Churchill last month. Both were well beaten. The late running In Just My Heels (4) may be better judged on back-to-back placings in stakes at Oaklawn in The Spring.

She may get the fast pace she needs to run these down in deep stretch. However, the other also-ran from that Grade 3 may be the one to side with. Where's My Ring (6) was made favourite for that race on the back of a third in a Grade 1 at Oaklawn.

Her rider stayed on the inside, whereas all the principals were steered well off the rail. The chances are she raced on the worst of the ground. Forgive that run, and she has form as good as any in here.

The locally trained runners have a better chance in this race than The Grade 3 Ohio Derby later. Lucky Cougar (1), Red Hot Lass (3) and Candlelight Hours (5) have been running in sprints. The trio all have form over similar distances to this one. If things break their way, they could make the frame.

23:20 Thistledown (Race 12) - Chunk of Gold @ SP

This is the big race of the year at Thistledown.

Most of the prize money is likely to go to the shippers from out of state. Grade 1 Preakness Stakes failure Clever Again (6) will be one of the favourites. He faded badly at Pimlico after setting legitimate early fractions.

The distance he was beaten was exaggerated, as he was squeezed badly at the entrance to the straight. Prior to that, he was a four-length winner from a well-touted runner in a stake at Oaklawn. Maybe crucial to his chances is either the lead on his own or a close-up stalking trip just off the speed. His regular rider, Jose Ortiz, is back in the saddle.

Like Clever Again (6), Chunk of Gold (2) faced the best three-year-olds around last time. That was well beaten in The Grade 1 Kentucky Derby. He was closer to a hot pace than the principals. His Grade 2 Louisiana Derby runner-up is a better indicator of his ability.

He has been working well again since Churchill Downs, suggesting he is ready to fire. In the hope he is the second or third favourite, he may be the play at the odds.

The other big player in the market is McAfee (4). He has looked like a work in progress, but ran his best race at Aqueduct last month. In The Grade 3 Peter Pan, he was a close second. He took almost the length of the straight to run down the long-time leader but was collared by a late runner close home. His trainer, Richard Dutrow, ended a barren spell with two winners recently. Of the three favourites, he’s probably the most likely to be in the forecast.

Outside the Big Three in the market, Mo Plex (10) may take the most money. He is a four-time career winner, including a trio of stakes events. He’s been freshened up since winning a stake at Aqueduct in April. That was over seven furlongs. He’s not got home over a mile in the past, so nine furlongs is an issue. To win this, he needs to outrun the other speed and be geared down on the front end.

Curvino (8) came up well short in his one run in a stake before. Master Controller (9) comes off a career best when breaking his maiden at Churchill. There may be better to come from him, but this is a big jump up in class. It is for the locals. The best of them is Capo Luca (3). He is on a four-timer and beat Extradition (5) two starts back.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...