Uruguay vs Venezuela Prediction: Wednesday woe for La Celeste

After a brilliant start to their 2026 World Cup qualification campaign, Uruguay are in a state of disarray, taking just eight points from the last 27 on offer. Still, La Celeste are on course to finish in the top six and qualify automatically, but Venezuela (seventh) could overtake them with a win on Wednesday (00:00), when they face off against each other at the Estadio Centenario in Montevideo.

Below are my Uruguay vs Venezuela predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this crunch clash in the capital.

Team News

Injured captain Federico Valverde (Real Madrid) and suspended forward Darwin Nunez (Liverpool) remain sidelined for Uruguay, whose head coach Marcelo Bielsa has released six players from his squad ahead of Wednesday's game.

Nicolas Marichal (Dynamo Moscow), Jose Luis Rodriguez (Vasco da Gama), Juan Manuel Sanabria (Atletico San Luis), Emiliano Martinez (Palmeiras), Luciano Rodriguez (Bahia) and Facundo Torres (LAFC) have all been let go by 'El Loco', who is bolstered by the return of Lucas Torreira (Galatasaray), who succumbed to illness prior to last Friday's 2-0 defeat to Paraguay.

Football Odds

Rodrigo Bentancur (Tottenham Hotspur) and Sebastian Caceres (Club America) are also available after missing out in Asuncion.

Venezuela kept up their bid for a first-ever World Cup appearance by beating Bolivia 2-0 in Maturin last Friday, and head coach Fernando Batista could opt to name an unchanged starting XI for La Vinotinto's trip to Montevideo this week.

Certainly, we can expect to see all-time leading marksman Salomon Rondon (Pachuca), who scored his country's second goal against La Verde, lead the line again.

Should Batista decide to make any alterations, Tomas Rincon and Yeferson Soltedo (both Santos) are likely to come into his thinking.

Uruguay vs Venezuela Odds

Uruguay have won their last two home games against Venezuela, and Bielsa's boys are 4/9 to make it three in a row on Wednesday, implying a 69.2% probability of success, while the visitors are 13/2, or a 13.3% chance, to triumph in Montevideo for the first time since March 2004.

The reverse fixture finished goalless last September, and another draw this time around is priced at 13/5, with a repeat of that 0-0 scoreline at 7/1.

Club America and Uruguay forward Rodrigo Aguirre (8/5) heads the anytime goalscorer market, with Rondon (18/5) first up for Batista's side.

Double Chance - Draw or Venezuela @ 8/5

Venezuela's away record in this campaign is indeed poor, with La Vinotinto picking up just two points from seven qualifiers on their travels. They are one of just three nations, alongside Peru and Paraguay, to have failed to get an away win on board, and have lost their last four after starting with two draws from their first three.

However, three of their five away defeats, including two of their last three, have been by a single-goal margin, and Batista's charges should be encouraged by the rotten recent record of Uruguay, who have won just one of their last nine qualifiers after beginning the campaign with four from six. Since beating Bolivia 3-0 in November 2023, La Celeste have only managed to beat Colombia in a qualifier, and that 3-2 success on home soil was achieved through a Manuel Ugarte strike in the 11th minute of second-half stoppage time.

Bielsa's side have only lost once at home, last time out against Argentina (0-1), but they've only triumphed once in their last four matches in Montevideo, playing out goalless draws there with Paraguay and Ecuador in September and October, respectively, of last year.

While Uruguay are four games without a win, home or away, Venezuela are trending in the opposite direction, breaking out of a nine-match winless run to beat Peru (1-0) and Bolivia (2-0), albeit both victories came in Maturin.

Still, those were confidence-boosting wins, and they will be buoyed by the dual absence of Valverde and Nunez on Wednesday, believing they can at least avoid defeat at the Estadio Centenario.

Total Goals - Under 1.5 @ 7/4

Uruguay (17) and Venezuela (15) are the fourth and fifth-highest scorers, respectively, in qualifying, but given each have played 15 times already, neither are exactly prolific, while La Celeste boast the fourth-best defensive record, with just 12 goals conceded (four at home).

Venezuela's 2026 World Cup qualifiers are averaging 2.13 goals, while Uruguay's are averaging 1.93, and given that three of the last four head-to-heads, including the reverse fixture in this campaign, have ended goalless, backing under 1.5 strikes could be a wise move on Wednesday.

It's a selection that has landed in six of Uruguay's last nine qualifiers, while it's been a winner in 33.3% (five) of Venezuela's games.

Uruguay have blanked in seven of their last nine internationals, including their last three, and the continued absence of Nunez and Valverde fuels my belief that they will struggle to score against Venezuela, who have only struck more than once in one of their seven away qualifiers.

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