Malta vs Lithuania Prediction: Stalemate on the cards

The two minnows of Group G meet at Ta' Qali on Saturday afternoon (17:00), as Malta host Lithuania. In truth, neither of these teams harbour serious ambitions of making it to the World Cup next summer given they have been placed in a group with the Netherlands, Poland and Finland. 

However, wins in these qualifiers are important for world rankings, and I believe that there is value to be found in this fixture. Read on for my Malta vs Lithuania predictions.

Football Odds

Team News

Jamie Carragher’s son, Wigan defender James Carragher, will be hoping to make his international bow in this fixture having been called up to the squad for the first time during the last international break. Reading forward Basil Tuma is the other EFL representative and the 20-year-old will be hoping for more minutes to prove his worth to manager Emilio De Leo. 

Steve Pisani and Teddy Teuma offer experience in midfield, with the latter also the joint-highest goalscorer in this squad with four goals to his name. Striker Kyrian Nwoko also has four goals and could be the key to unlocking this Lithuanian defence.

Lithuania boss Edgaras Jankauskas will hope Armandas Kucys and Gytis Paulauskas can provide the firepower up front while this is a special occasion for Fedor Cernych, who will play his 100th game for his country.

There are no potential debutants in this squad and plenty of experience at the back, with Justas Lasickas and Edvinas Girdvainis both having played over 50 times for Lithuania. 

Malta vs Lithuania Odds

Malta are 7/4 to win this game, giving them a win probability of 36% while Lithuania can be backed at 9/5 for all three points. A draw is 9/5, which could be tempting given the strength of both of these teams on paper. 

Over 2.5 goals is 7/4 which gives you some idea of the lack of quality in the final third, with BTTS 6/5. Lithuania captain Fedor Cernych is 6/1 to score first having scored 15 goals for his country.  

Under 1.5 goals @ 5/4 

Two poor teams that focus on defending rather than attacking, so my first selection is to back there to be under 1.5 goals. Malta have failed to score in their two qualifiers so far, and more importantly only 11 total goals have been scored in their last eight with De Leo’s men accounting for just four of those. 

Lithuania had a thrilling 2-2 draw with Finland last time out, but on the road they have scored just twice in their last four outings, drawing a blank in their last two. Under 1.5 goals has landed in four of Malta’s last five home games and Lithuania’s last two away fixtures, so it makes sense to back it to come in again here. 

Correct score - Malta 0-0 Lithuania @ 5/1 

See above. These two are really struggling in front of goal and I believe doubling up on the lack of goals is the way we should attack this fixture. I’ve included all the stats you need above, but I think if we believe there will be under 1.5 goals, it makes sense that we should put a small stake on 0-0 at a far bigger price. 

It would take a miracle for both teams to score in this fixture, with the last seven Malta fixtures ending BTTS No - so we aren’t that far away from a 0-0 stalemate. Malta have also had a red card in their last three fixtures so that is worthy of consideration, but if they keep XI on the pitch, they can keep Lithuania out. 

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