Chile vs Argentina Prediction: Leaders to leave La Roja languishing in last place

Top takes on bottom in the South American section of the 2026 Fifa World Cup qualifiers this Friday (02:00), as Argentina (first) face off against Chile (12th) in Santiago.

Below are my Chile vs Argentina predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this game at the Estadio Nacional Julio Martinez Pradanos.

Team News

Paulo Diaz (River Plate), Luciano Cabral (Independiente) and Charles Aranguiz (Universidad de Chile) were all forced to withdraw from Ricardo Gareca's Chile squad this week due to injury.

Other notable absentees include Ben Brereton Diaz (Southampton), Eduardo Vargas (Nacional) and Erick Pulgar (Flamengo), but centurions Alexis Sanchez (Udinese) and Arturo Vidal (Colo-Colo) have been called up.

Sanchez, in particular, has endured a difficult season, struggling with injuries in Italy and failing to score in 13 Serie A appearances, but he did feature in three of Udinese's last four games, so he has regained some fitness just in time to be restored to Chile's starting XI on Friday.

Football Odds

Guillermo Maripan (Torino), Dario Osorio (FC Midtjylland) and Marcelino Nunez (Norwich City) are other likely starters in Santiago.

The big news for Argentina is that captain and talisman Lionel Messi (Inter Miami) is back in the squad after missing March victories over Uruguay (0-1) and Brazil (4-1). The 37-year-old is set for a busy month, though, with his club side set to take part in the 2025 Fifa Club World Cup, which kicks off on June 15, so his minutes may be managed for La Albiceleste. With Colombia to come at home next Wednesday, it wouldn't be a big surprise to see the little magician feature off the bench this week.

At the other end of the age scale is 17-year-old River Plate sensation Franco Mastantuono, who is one of four uncapped players in Lionel Scaloni's squad.

Alexis Mac Allister (Liverpool), Lisandro Martinez (Manchester United) and Paulo Dybala (AS Roma) are the headline names left out due to injury, but the likes of Emiliano Martinez (Aston Villa) and Nicolas Otamendi (Benfica) are around to lend their experience in camp.

Chile vs Argentina Odds

Chile have only won two of their 14 qualifiers this campaign, and as such, are priced at 4/1 to win on Friday, implying a 20% probability of success. Argentina, meanwhile, have won 10 of their 14 games, including four of their last five, and are 4/6, or a 60% chance, to do the double over La Roja, having beaten them 3-0 in Buenos Aires last September.

The draw is priced at 9/4, both teams to score at 11/10, and over 2.5 total goals at 5/4.

To Win to Nil - Argentina @ 6/4

Chile have endured a torrid campaign to this point, suffering eight defeats, and I predict more pain for them on Friday.

Argentina have swept most opponents before them, booking their spot at next year's finals in rapid fashion, and while they might not be at full throttle in Santiago, given their eight-point lead at the top of the group, I still expect Scaloni's side to have too much quality for their hosts in the Chilean capital.

The reigning World Cup champions have only been breached eight times in 14 qualifiers, keeping nine clean sheets, and a 10th shutout could be coming their way this week, with Chile scoring just nine goals so far - only Peru (six) have found the net fewer times.

Team With Most Booking Points - Chile @ 4/5

Only Ecuador (also 18) have been awarded as few yellow cards in this qualifying campaign as Argentina, who have received just one red card - only Uruguay have managed to avoid one so far.

Chile, on the other hand, are joint-fourth for yellows, and have seen two players dismissed - only Bolivia (four) have received more reds.

Five players were cautioned in the reverse meeting between Chile and Argentina, with La Roja in receipt of 30 booking points following yellows brandished in the direction of Nunez, Victor Davila and Diaz, and La Albiceleste handed 20 after Rodrigo de Paul and Giovani Lo Celso went into the book.

Chile have been awarded the most booking points in the last four head-to-heads, dating back to June 2021, and with Argentina sat comfortably at the top of the standings heading into Friday's contest, and the hosts desperate to move off the bottom, I expect that run to extend to five games, with La Roja's pride very much at stake.

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