Norway vs Italy Prediction: Hosts can land big result

We’ve got a cracking World Cup qualifier coming our way on Friday night as Norway host Italy in Group I (19:45, Amazon Prime). Italy haven’t played a game in this qualification group yet, while Norway have posted two wins from two and are targeting their first World Cup finals since 1998. 

Below you can find my Norway vs Italy prediction for this crunch clash in Oslo. 

Football Odds

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All the talk for Norway is rightly about their frightening attack. We all know about Erling Haaland, but his striker partner is likely to be Alexander Sorloth, who has scored 20 league goals for Atletico Madrid this season in his first year at the club, having also scored a hatful for Villarreal in La Liga. 

Long gone are his days of being a Crystal Palace flop, and now he is trying, along with Haaland, to fire Norway to the World Cup. Italy boss Luciano Spalletti said: “This is the best Norway in its history, with both technical and physical qualities, especially evident in their attacking line,” and it’s clear to see why. 

Sorloth and Haaland make up a dangerous front two, while Arsenal captain Martin Odegaard will hope to add to the three assists he registered against Israel. At the back, Kristoffer Ajer of Brentford will play, with Leo Ostigaard a potential partner for him in defence.

For Italy, they won’t see too much change from that disappointing aggregate defeat to Germany in the Nations League quarter-finals, although Manuel Locatelli of Juventus has had to withdraw from the squad with an ankle problem.

Moise Kean scored twice in the 3-3 draw and will start again up top with one of Daniel Maldini, Giacomo Raspadori or Mateo Retegui. The 3-5-2 system is here to stay for Italy, and up to four Champions League finalists for Inter Milan could feature in the form of Alessandro Bastoni, Federico Dimarco, Nicolo Barella and Davide Frattesi. 

Norway vs Italy Odds 

Norway have been priced at 6/4 to win this game, giving them an implied win probability of 40% for this home match. Meanwhile Italy can be backed at 8/5, which gives you some idea of just how tight the bookies make this encounter. A draw is 12/5 and potentially useful for both teams, while over 2.5 goals is up at 8/11. 

If you fancy BTTS that is 4/7 while Haaland is the favourite to find the net first at 4/1. 

Norway to win and BTTS @ 10/3

I wasn’t quite sure who to back heading into this one, but I’ve been convinced by Norway, and I believe there will be plenty of goals. There have been over 2.5 goals in six of the last seven Italy matches while Norway have scored a ridiculous 18 in their last four outings. That shouldn’t be an issue, and it is this goalscoring strength that I believe will get the job done against Italy. 

I just don’t think Italy’s back three will be able to cope with Haaland and Sorloth in truth, while Spalletti hasn’t helped things in my mind by heaping the pressure on this fixture.

“Let’s be clear: in Norway, everything is on the line when it comes to whether or not we’ll qualify for the World Cup,” Spalletti said at his press conference.

“The players and I are fully aware of it—we mentioned this in yesterday’s meeting with Gigi [Buffon] present. We have a duty to fulfil this task that’s been entrusted to us. We need to qualify because it’s absolutely crucial for us.” 

No messing about from the manager, but he has a side that features several Inter Milan players that will be reeling having lost both Serie A and the Champions League final in their last two appearances. I can see them struggling to get to terms with a vibrant Norwegian outfit. 

Scorecast - Haaland to score first and Norway 3-1 Italy @ 66/1

Why not? Haaland is going to be heading off to the Club World Cup following these fixtures, and his summer doesn’t look like offering him much of a rest - but his country needs him. I think he’s got to turn up in the big moments, so am happy to side with him to open the scoring in an entertaining and open 3-1 home win. It’s a big price, so small stakes only. 

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