AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall Bet Builder Tips: Defence to win the day

The League Two play-off final comes our way on Bank Holiday Monday as AFC Wimbledon face Walsall at Wembley (15:01, Sky Sports Main Event). With a place in the third tier of English football at stake, I hardly need to give this one the big billing - we all know that this is what the season comes down to. 

Below you can find my AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall Bet Builder Tips for this League Two play-off final.

AFC Wimbledon to win 

I’m pretty confident in AFC Wimbledon heading into this final, despite the upturn in performance we saw from Walsall in the semis. To summarise the Saddler’s season for you, they were one of the best teams we have ever seen at this level over the first half of the campaign. Mat Sadler had led his team on a nine-game winning streak over winter that saw them amass a whopping 57 points after 27 matches. 

They had a 14-point lead at the top at one stage and a 100-point season was in contention, as they would have needed 43 points from their final 19 to achieve that feat. What happened from mid-January was utterly bizarre, as striker Nathan Lowe was recalled by Stoke, and they won just three more matches - failing to win for 13 in a row towards the end of the campaign. 

It saw them throw away automatic promotion, but they recovered to dispatch Chesterfield with two wins in the semi-finals. However, they are coming up against a dogged Wimbledon outfit with the best defence in the league. I think defence will overcome attack in this final, and it will be Wimbledon celebrating at Wembley.

BTTS No

I’m backing Wimbledon to win this game to nil, as I trust their defence more than I trust Walsall’s attack. They beat Notts County 1-0 home and away to book their spot in this final, and I believe that is the exact tactic they will use here to try and pull off promotion. 

The defensive numbers are mightily impressive. The Dons have conceded just 35 goals in 48 league fixtures this term, including the play-offs, and their total of 25 clean sheets this year is proof of their solid nature. The back three are extremely talented, plus Crystal Palace loan goalkeeper Owen Goodman looks like a future star at just 21. I’m happy to side with this rock-solid defence to get the job done at Wembley on Monday.

Over 3.5 cards

The next two picks are relatively safe, but just boost the odds of our Bet Builder slightly. The first is backing ove 3.5 cards, which should come in if the game pans out how I expect it to. Wimbledon aren’t afraid of getting stuck in, and if they do manage to get in front, they will be more than happy to take yellow cards late on to slow the game down. 

There were six yellow cards in Walsall’s second leg win over Chesterfield while there were four in Wimbledon’s relatively straightforward 1-0 success over Notts County last time out. I can’t see a world in which the referee doesn’t have to get his card out on multiple occasions in this play-off final.

Over 6.5 corners

Another relatively low bar set for the corner count, but with the physicality of both defences, and attacking quality on show from Walsall’s perspective, I think we will see a decent number of openings. 

The Dons have averaged 9.22 corners per match this season in total, with Walsall’’s tally just above that at 9.85. I could have pushed this one far higher but will just play it safe, with over 6.5 total corners at Wembley.

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