Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea Prediction: Blues to fall at final hurdle

It all comes down to the final day of the 2024/25 Premier League campaign for Nottingham Forest and Chelsea in their respective quests to reach next season's Uefa Champions League. The Tricky Trees will start their game against the Blues at the City Ground on Sunday (16:00, Sky Sports Main Event) in seventh, a point behind Newcastle United (fourth), Chelsea (fifth) and Aston Villa (sixth), with the former two occupying the final two qualification spots for Europe's premier club competition.

A draw won't be enough for Forest to reach the promised land, and it may not be enough for their opponents, either, making this a potential winner-takes-all clash. Below are my Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Nottingham Forest could be missing a crucial component of their back line on Sunday. Head coach Nuno Espirito Santo told reporters on Friday that he had concerns over the fitness of Brazilian centre-back Murillo.

"He twisted his ankle, [he] has not been able to train, let's see tomorrow [Saturday]," said Nuno.

Should Murillo fail a fitness test, compatriot Morato will deputise.

Football Odds

Unsurprisingly, Taiwo Awoniyi, who underwent surgery on a serious abdominal injury sustained in Forest's 2-2 draw against Leicester City on May 11 and missed his side's 2-1 win at West Ham United last Sunday, remains sidelined.

Callum Hudson-Odoi returned from a two-game injury absence as a substitute last weekend, and the former Chelsea winger could start against his old side on Sunday, with Nicolas Dominguez potentially dropping down to the bench.

Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca has confirmed that forwards Christopher Nkunku and Marc Guiu are both available for Sunday's trip to Nottingham. Nkunku hasn't made the squad since April 26, while Guiu's last involvement was in the Blues' 2-1 victory over West Ham on March 3.

The return of both strikers is a huge boost for Maresca, who had to start 19-year-old Tyrique George up top against Manchester United last time out in the Premier League with Nicolas Jackson serving a three-game ban for a red card received in the 2-0 defeat to Newcastle United on May 11.

Jackson is still serving a suspension, so don't be surprised to see Nkunku thrown straight back into the starting XI, although Maresca won't want to rush him with Wednesday's Uefa Conference League final against Real Betis in mind.

Maresca has also offered a positive update on club captain Reece James, who was spotted training individually on Tuesday.

"Reece James is okay, he will be part of the squad,' the Italian explained. "As I’ve said previously, he has his own programme because we are trying to protect him [after his injury]. We are managing him in both the games and the training sessions that we have.

"But Reece is fine, and he is available for Sunday."

Wesley Fofana, Omari Kellyman (both hamstring) and Mkyhailo Mudryk (suspended) are still unavailable, however.

Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea Odds

It's win or bust for Forest on Sunday in their attempts to qualify for the Champions League, and they're offered odds of 21/10 to secure those three points, implying a 32.3% probability of success. Chelsea, meanwhile, are 5/4, or a 44.4% chance, to win and book their ticket to next season's competition.

The teams played out a 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge in October, and another stalemate between the two can be backed at 11/4.

A repeat of that scoreline is priced at 6/1, while both teams to score is available at 4/7.

Forest striker Chris Wood, who opened the scoring in the reverse fixture and brought up Premier League goal number 20 for the season against Leicester earlier this month, is 7/5 favourite in the anytime market, followed by Chelsea's main man, Cole Palmer (8/5).

Match Result - Nottingham Forest @ 15/8

Chelsea have been installed as favorites for Sunday's contest, but I think that's generous.

Yes, Forest have stumbled since beating Manchester United 1-0 on April 1, winning just two of their next seven in the league, and losing three of those first four.

However, they've gotten back on track since a 1-0 defeat at Brentford on May 1, playing out a couple of draws with Crystal Palace (1-1) and Leicester (2-2) before going to east London and beating West Ham 2-1 last time out. That victory over the Irons should have instilled a great deal of confidence into Nuno's side, and they shouldn't be fearing a home game against Chelsea to decide their fate.

Maresca's men have only lost one of their last eight league matches, but that was their last away outing at Newcastle, and they've won just one of the last 10 on their travels, and that was a lucky escape against Fulham at Craven Cottage as they scored twice in the last 10 minutes to secure a 2-1 victory.

They beat Man United 1-0 at Stamford Bridge last time out, but they weren't particularly convincing against woeful side, and their last three wins, against the Red Devils, Liverpool and Everton, have been versus clubs with very little or nothing left to play for.

Forest have everything to play for on Sunday, and I think the Tricky Trees will be right up for this one.

A home win, and egg on the face of Maresca, for me.

Booking Points - 80+ @ 10/3

Only AFC Bournemouth (also 97) have been shown as many yellow cards in the Premier League this season as Chelsea, who are averaging 2.62 per game.

Forest aren't much further down their table as their tally of 84, averaging out at 2.27 per game, sits them joint-fifth.

The two clubs have both received two reds, too.

October's reverse fixture was a feisty affair as 115 booking points were awarded at Stamford Bridge, 55 for Forest, who saw James Ward-Prowse dismissed for two yellows, and 60 for Chelsea, who saw six players cautioned.

With Champions League football on the line for both sides this weekend, expect more fireworks between the two at the City Ground.

Forest's recent league games have been particularly spicy, with three of their last four, including away to West Ham last time out, producing 80+ booking points. There were 90 at the London Stadium, 110 v Crystal Palace on May 5, and 80 at Brentford four days before facing the Eagles. The only game in that period that didn't reach the 80 mark was the East Midlands derby against Leicester, where 60 were awarded.

Chelsea, meanwhile, saw 70 booking points dished out in their last league game against Man United, while their most recent away day, at Newcastle United earlier this month, ended with 85, and the Blues were responsible for over half (45), with Jackson sent off at St. James' Park.

Offers

We will be Top Price on Chelsea to beat Nottingham Forest with selected bookmakers using Oddschecker for the comparison. (Available from 09:30 Sunday)

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