Football Bet of the Day: Fiorentina’s heartbreak to spill over?

We’ve got the second leg of a Championship play-off semi-final coming our way on Monday night, but my focus for the Football Bet of the Day is over in Italy, where we have a relegation battle packed with tension and drama. 

Venezia are looking to get themselves out of the bottom three as they host Fiorentina (17:30), who are reeling having lost that Europa League semi-final on Thursday. Read on to find my selection.

Football Odds

The UK football hipsters won’t know which team to support as Venezia host Fiorentina in this Serie A clash as the relegation-threatened hosts welcome La Viola to the second-oldest stadium in Italy, Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.

They are currently averaging a point per game on home soil in Serie A this season, and they have to start getting wins on the board if they are to survive in their first season back in the top division. They only won the Serie B play-offs last term so to still have a chance at this stage of the season is impressive, and ahead of the weekend they sit just one point behind Lecce, who currently hold that valuable 17th spot. 

Below them, Empoli still have a chance of survival but can’t seem to win a game right now, so it could become a two-team shootout with just three matches to go. This means opportunity knocks if they can find a win, and I think they have a decent chance on Monday night, against a Fiorentina outfit that suffered a heartbreaking loss to Real Betis on Thursday. 

Venezia vs Fiorentina odds

The Europa League semi-final went all the way to extra-time before a goal Abde Ezzalzouli scored the goal that won the tie for Betis. That felt like a hammer blow for Fiorentina’s season and it’s difficult to see how they mentally recover in time for this tough away test. 

Having lost the last two Europa League finals, to West Ham United and Olympiacos, they will have felt it was going to be their year this time around. But yet again, they’ve been dealt a cruel blow in May, and now they may not even qualify for Europe next term.

Ahead of the weekend they sit eighth, four points behind in-form Roma who occupy that Europa League qualification spot as things stand. It feels like a big ask for them to close that gap, while Lazio are also looking strong in sixth. I think Fiorentina’s season is going to end with a whimper, and their hopes of European football next term could be all but over before a ball is even kicked in Venice. 

They’ve won six out of 19 away games this term, which is middling form, but I just think the physical strain of playing for 120 minutes, and the desire of Venezia to win this game will mean another loss is on the cards for La Viola. The reverse fixture ended 0-0 while only AC Milan have beaten Venezia in their last five outings. 

Meanwhile, Fiorentina have won two of their last five in Serie A but they are far stronger at home, and they haven’t had to deal with a gut-punch like this before in 2024/25. Manager Raffaele Palldino even said after the game “There is disappointment and regret” before going on to explain “Nobody will sleep tonight, but we’ve got to try to get over it as quickly as possible.”

That shows how tough they are taking that defeat on aggregate, and I cannot see them bouncing back immediately here. They are priced up as favourites, but I’m going to back Venezia to take advantage of their heartbreak and pick up a vital three points in the battle to stay in the top flight. 

Venezia to beat Fiorentina is Monday’s Football Bet of the Day.

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