Barcelona vs Real Madrid Prediction: Barca to lift Copa del Rey trophy

The Copa del Rey Final is the one many wanted as the two giants of Spanish football clash for the rights to some silverware. Premier Sports 2 will have live TV coverage here in the UK with kick-off set for 21:00.

Our La Liga Betting Expert is here with his preview of the match and Mark thinks it'll be another disappointing day for Carlo Ancelotti, who has endured a few of these lately. You can read his full match preview and check out his Barcelona vs Real Madrid Prediction below...

Barcelona vs Real Madrid Preview

It’s the Copa del Rey final in Seville on Saturday night. For the first time in 11 years, the big game features Spanish football’s big two, with Barcelona taking on Real Madrid at the Estadio La Cartuja. 

Not since Gareth Bale’s brilliant solo strike settled the 2014 final at Mestalla have the clubs faced off in the final of this competition. The Spanish cup has been given a welcome facelift in recent years, and a new structure has helped to deliver seven different winners in seven seasons. 

This year’s competition has been very much a heavyweight affair though, with Atlético Madrid and Real Sociedad also making it to semi-finals that provided no shortage of drama. 

Barça’s first leg in the last four at home to Atleti was a wild game that ended 4-4, but they put in a much more measured display to win the return clash 1-0 at the Estadio Metropolitano. Ferran Torres scored the only goal in a game which didn’t require Wojciech Szczęsny to make a single save. 

There’s a degree of symmetry with Real Madrid’s semi-final story, with Los Blancos winning 1-0 away at the Reale Arena, before drawing 4-4 in an action-packed second leg at the Santiago Bernabéu against Real Sociedad, with Antonio Rüdiger’s extra-time goal preventing penalties. 

The goals have also flowed when Barcelona and Real Madrid have met so far this season, although mostly in one direction. Hansi Flick’s side made a real statement of intent by sweeping to a 4-0 victory at the Bernabéu back in October in La Liga.  

Los Blancos at least took the lead in the Supercopa final three months later, but again they were overpowered by a dazzling attacking blitz from Barça who scored five times between the 22nd and 48th minutes. The margin of victory may well have been greater than 5-2 had Szczęsny not been sent off early in the second half. 

It’s safe to say that Carlo Ancelotti will need to find an alternative plan on Saturday night. His side doesn’t exactly come into this game in great form, with five of their last 10 matches in all competitions ending in defeat in regulation time.  

They have at least made a relatively strong response to limping out of the Champions League against Arsenal though. Three straight 1-0 victories over Alavés, Athletic Club and Getafe have kept them in the hunt for the league title, and offered some encouragement from a defensive standpoint, heading into the first of two Clásicos in the space of a decisive fortnight. 

They were a bit fortunate at the Coliseum in midweek though, and it’s not exactly the kind of form that will instil much fear in Flick’s side. Barcelona, by contrast, have been performing at a consistently high level since the turn of the year, with their Supercopa triumph in January a real turning point following a poor run of results at the end of 2024. 

It’s 22 victories and just one defeat for Barça in all competitions so far in 2025. Even that solitary loss was not a damaging one, coming in the second leg of a Champions League quarter-final against Borussia Dortmund that they were already in complete control of. 

They’ve scored 80 goals already in this calendar year, with Raphinha, Lamine Yamal, Robert Lewandowski and even back-up forward Ferran operating at a very high level that few opposing defences have found a way to stop. 

Team News: 

The big news from a Barcelona perspective is that Lewandowski has not recovered from his hamstring injury in time to feature. Ferran looks sure to start up front as a result. 

Alejandro Balde has also failed to make the cup final squad, but there is a place in the travelling party for Marc-André ter Stegen after seven months on the sidelines. It would still be a huge surprise were he to be thrown straight into a game of this magnitude though. 

As for Real Madrid, they are expected to start Kylian Mbappé. The Frenchman has been nursing an ankle problem over the past couple of weeks, but should still lead the line in Seville. Ferland Mendy’s involvement is more uncertain, and the same goes for David Alaba, although he’s unlikely to start even if passed fit.  

Los Blancos have also been dealt a fresh blow this week, with Eduardo Camavinga ruled out until the end of the season with a groin injury. He joins long-term absentees Dani Carvajal and Éder Militão on the sidelines. 

Match Odds: 

Barcelona head into El Clásico as the 11/10 favourites to win the game in regulation time. You can back the Draw at 13/5, while Real Madrid are priced at 21/10. Barça are also available at 8/13 to win the trophy, with Los Blancos priced at 6/5 in that market. 

If you fancy this to go much the same way as the two meetings so far this season, you can back Barcelona to score over 2.5 goals at 5/2, while they are priced at 13/2 to score over 3.5 goals against Real Madrid for the third time this season. You can also back Barcelona to win and Over 2.5 goals at 9/5. 

Alternatively, Real Madrid and Over 2.5 goals is on offer at 3/1. You can also back Los Blancos to win either half at 19/20, while they are available at 11/10 to score over 1.5 goals in the game. 

Despite Barça’s status as favourites, it’s Mbappé who leads the way as the 9/2 favourite to score first, while he’s on offer at 5/4 to score anytime. You can also back Vinícius Júnior to score anytime at 15/8, while Jude Bellingham is priced at 11/4 in the same market. 

On the opposing side, in-form Ferran Torres is on offer at 11/2 to score first and 6/4 to score anytime. You can also back Raphinha to continue his stunning campaign and score anytime at 7/4. 

Bet 1 - Barcelona to win @ 11/10 

While you can never totally write Real Madrid off given the individual quality they have in attacking areas, they are going to need to significantly raise their level to stand a chance in this game. 

Even without Lewandowski, Barça have delivered in big matches this season, and with Ferran averaging a goal every 52 minutes in the Copa del Rey, their attacking threat will not be significantly reduced as a result of the Polish striker’s absence. 

They are much the more balanced side, with the control that Pedri gives them in the middle of the park likely to ensure Flick’s side win that battle, particularly if Real Madrid end up using Fede Valverde at right-back again. 

Ancelotti could spring a slight surprise by dropping Rodrygo and starting with an extra midfielder, but based on everything we’ve seen from these two sides this season, particularly in the two meetings, I’m backing Barcelona to win at 11/10. 

Bet 2 - Both teams to score & Barcelona over 13.5 shots @ 11/8 

It’s rare that El Clásico doesn’t deliver on the entertainment front, with the last four competitive meetings all producing at least four goals. With both teams looking weak at left-back as a result of selection problems, there should be more gaps to exploit here, with Barça sure to look to seize the initiative and play on the front foot. 

They do still take risks with their high line though, and Real Madrid should have moments in this game when they are able to get in behind and release Mbappé or Vinícius which may be the best route to a goal for Ancelotti’s side. 

The Catalans should have the edge in terms of territory though and they had a ridiculous 40 shots in midweek against Mallorca, while Real Madrid had to face 20 shots at Getafe on Wednesday night. 

Thibaut Courtois has been a very busy man in recent weeks, and I can see that being the case again here, so I’m using the Bet Builder to back Both teams to score and Barcelona over 13.5 shots at 11/8. 

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