Leganes vs Girona Prediction: Low-scoring affair expected

The Estadio Municipal Butarque hosts a colossal relegation battle in La Liga on Thursday night as Leganes host Girona (Premier Sports 2, 18:00). The home side are currently sat in 19th, just three points from safety, and they will look to pull the Blanquivermells further into the mire, as the away side are currently just five points above their hosts. 

This is set to have major consequences for Spain’s top-flight, and below you can find my Leganes vs Girona predictions. 

Team News

Starting on a positive note for Leganes, Daniel Raba is back from suspension and as the club’s top scorer he will be hoping to help improve their dismal attacking stats. More on that later. Elsewhere there are concerns surrounding Yvan Neyou after the tough-tackling midfielder was forced off injured at the weekend, and he may join former Manchester City defender Matija Nastasic in the treatment room. 

Borna Barisic and Enric Franquesa are also ruled out through injury, but key cog Renato Tapia is fit to play in the heart of midfield. After keeping a clean sheet last time out, expect the back four to remain unchanged ahead of goalkeeper Marko Dmitrovic. 

Meanwhile Girona may be without Abel Ruiz yet again after he picked up another injury that forced him to miss the defeat to Real Betis. He managed just two appearances on his return from a previous injury, before picking up another issue that looks set to rule him out here. 

Football Odds

Michel has had problems like that to deal with all season, with Bryan Gil out with a knee problem and Ricard Artero missing with an ankle strain. Up top, Artem Dovbyk’s move to Roma in the summer has left them with a gaping hole to fill and they haven’t been able to do so. Cristhian Stuani is the top scorer with eight, but he has only made one start in La Liga and is only capable of coming off the bench for 20 minutes most weeks. 

Given the quick turnaround since Monday’s defeat, the likes of Donny van de Beek and Oriol Romeu will be hoping to force their way into the starting XI.  

Leganes vs Girona Odds

Leganes are priced at 7/4 to win this game, giving them an implied win probability of 36% heading into this clash. Girona meanwhile can be backed at the same price, while a draw is 21/10 - showing just how tight this game could be. 

Over 2.5 goals feels like a long-shot at 6/5 while BTTS is 10/11. Goals are hard to come by for both teams and despite never starting, Stuani is the favourite to open the scoring at 11/2. 

Under 1.5 goals @ 2/1

These two have had dismal seasons in front of goal, and I can’t see that changing here. Leganes have scored a paltry 29 goals in 32 league matches this season while Girona have only managed 39 in the same number of games. There have been just three goals in Leganes’ last three games, and that includes a battling 1-0 defeat at home to league leaders Barcelona. The stalemate at Mallorca showed real progression given they are chasing the European places and I believe the home side will come into this game with a similar mentality. 

The way they can stay up is by keeping clean sheets and attempting to edge close games. Meanwhile Girona have scored three goals across their last four matches and can pose a threat, but they are severely lacking confidence right now. The reverse fixture finished 4-3 which worries me slightly, but I cannot see the same sort of game taking place at this stage of the season. 

Daniel Raba to score first @ 13/2

Although I don’t believe this game will contain that many goals, I think there is some value in backing Raba to score first. He’s back from suspension and was in flying form before his ban, having scored four goals in his last four games. He’s also got six in his last eight in La Liga and I think he can take advantage of a Girona defence that has conceded five in their last 180 minutes of action. 

After qualifying for the Champions League last season, Girona's dramatic drop has been startling, and they have now equalled the club record for their longest winless run in the top flight (10 matches). I worry for them this term, and would lean towards the home side nicking this one, with Raba a good price to open the scoring. 

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